‘Voting miracle’ needed at Origin after AusSuper snubs bid

afr.com:

Brookfield and EIG Partners need a “voting miracle” to secure approval from Origin Energy shareholders for their $20 billion takeover offer for the major energy supplier as Origin’s biggest shareholder digs in to vote against the deal.

The view from Sydney-based Saul Kavonic, who is set to join boutique firm MST Marquee, comes as Morningstar advised Origin shareholders to accept the deal, but acknowledged there is “a significant risk” that the takeover fails given the position of AustralianSuper.

Brookfield’s Asia-Pacific head, Stewart Upson, is urging Origin shareholders to accept the sweetened offer. Natalie Boog

Morningstar said the sweetened offer from the two North American suitors, of $9.53 per share was 12 per cent above its standalone valuation for Origin of $8.50, and represented a “reasonable” premium. Origin’s board has recommended shareholders accept.

But industry fund AusSuper last night is said to have increased its shareholding in Origin, buying about 21 million more shares on-market to take its stake to about 15 per cent. Its significant position makes it hard for the bidders to secure the 75 per cent approval they need at the Origin shareholder vote in Sydney on November 23 despite several other shareholders saying they intend to accept or are seriously considering the offer.

Morningstar analyst Adrian Atkins described approval of the deal as “a big ask”.

Perpetual, which owns about 3 per cent of Origin and criticised the earlier agreed offer as too low, has yet to say where it stands on the sweetened deal announced on Thursday ahead of a meeting later Friday with the company.

Shares in Origin, which on Thursday slumped 6.6 per cent to $8.47 as market confidence in the transaction took a hit, dipped a