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economictimes.indiatimes.com / 1 year ago
economictimes.indiatimes.com / 1 year ago
economictimes.indiatimes.com / 1 year ago
economictimes.indiatimes.com / 1 year ago
We are better off now than in September; by June a bottom should be in place: Ajay Bagga
Ajay Bagga, Market Expert, says it will not be very politically prudential or possible to bring the value chains back into the US. But when it is organised chaos and insanity as a stated policy, it is very difficult then for markets and it turns volatile. So, April 2nd is a very big event risk. That might just end with a whimper and get postponed for another three months, and that means volatility will again get enhanced. Yesterday, the Bank Global Manager survey showed 55% are putting the risk of a global recession because of Trump trade wars as the biggest risk.
Bagga says by June, a bottom should be in place. Price wise, 21,800 was probably a bottom price level. Now from here, markets could go down in the very short term on some event risk, but fundamentally, we are better off than we were in September.
Let us first address the big market setup. The markets are finally rebounding. Is relief finally on the anvil or there is more concern on the horizon? Have we bottomed out?
Ajay Bagga: It is difficult to say that we have bottomed out but if we look at the macro, we are much better off than we were in September.
A base effect will kick in from the June quarter because FII 2025 numbers had started weakening. Corporate earnings also probably are near the bottom. So, fundamentally, we are near the bottom.
Sentimentally, if there is one more leg up and then we go down and then go back again, that is difficult to really predict. But my own thinking is that by June we should have a bottom in place even time wise. Price wise 21,800 probably we visited a bottom price level.
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