We face hard options on the BRICS architecture
BRICS group of countries starts on Tuesday in South Africa, the only add-on member of what began as a quartet of Brazil, Russia, India and China, which formed the original ‘BRIC’ coined by Goldman Sachs two decades ago by clubbing together hot emerging markets for global investors to bet on. Such summitry has been a regular feature since 2009, and its most notable achievement has been the Shanghai-based New Development Bank set up by the group as a multilateral lender, an alternative to the West-led World Bank and International Monetary Fund. What’s new is the context: a geopolitical upheaval is underway in the post-Ukraine-war world.
Last year’s meeting, held online, was too soon after that war’s eruption to make others sit up, though a reserve currency was proposed. This time, Western capitals are watching how BRICS may try to enlarge its role—and itself. More than 20 countries are reportedly keen to join the club amid signs of Beijing eyeing it as a platform to exert greater influence across the globe.
As that is not in India’s interest, New Delhi will have to play its cards very carefully. India has professed resolute neutrality in what is shaping up as another cold war between two blocs, this time with the US and Europe on one side and ‘no limit’ partners China and Russia on the other. Beijing has been forging ties in Southeast and West Asia, apart from Africa, as part of a grand plan, while Moscow has rattled Europe’s post-World War II equanimity.
Right now, the BRICS five account for a fifth of global exports and more than a fourth of world GDP, thanks mainly to China’s presence. Even if the group’s membership is enlarged, Beijing’s dominance of it will not decline. There’s reason to suspect its heft would go up,
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