We require reliable economic data for policy responses

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real estate and professional services. While there can be mixed opinions on the projected trajectory of economic growth in the years ahead, the real issue is the reliability of official estimates. Questions have been raised on the reliability of national accounts data even earlier.

Among the prominent critics is the chief economic advisor during the first term of the incumbent National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government, Arvind Subramanian, who raised questions on their reliability and robustness. While criticisms of the methodology and concepts are common, a major problem with the current series of national accounts is their use of outdated base-year data. The current series is based on 2011-12 as their base year, which is more than a decade old.

There is unlikely to be a revision in the next five years, given the absence of key survey data such as the findings of consumer expenditure surveys, which are unlikely to be available before 2025. However, while more recent data is available for several indicators, such as the periodic labour force surveys (PLFS) which are now available for the last five years, it is yet to be incorporated in the current series. Similar is the case with the unorganized sector, for which we have data available that has not been incorporated.

As a result, data inputs on the country’s household sector, as well as informal segments of the manufacturing and services sectors, are extrapolations of organized- sector data to a significant extent. The other notable absence is the availability of Census data, which is also unlikely to be available before 2026. This is a particularly serious problem for a country like India, whose economy has seen several shocks and also changes over the past decade or