What happens if Russia turns off Europe’s gas supply this winter?
Vladimir Putin and Russian state-owned energy giant Gazprom appear to be turning the screw on Europe by limiting gas supplies. The head of the International Energy Agency has now warned that Europe needs to prepare immediately for Russia to turn off all gas exports to the region this winter. The invasion of Ukraine has triggered a scramble by countries to wean themselves off energy imports from Russia, but fresh urgency has been injected into those efforts.
Russia has begun cutting off countries from supplies in an apparent move to hinder their efforts to fill up their gas storage before the winter. Over the past week, Gazprom has cut supplies running through Europe’s major natural gas pipeline, Nord Stream 1, by 60%. This has triggered supply cuts in Italy, Austria, the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Gas has also been shut off to a string of other countries including Poland, Bulgaria, France and the Netherlands. An explosion at a huge Freeport liquified natural gas (LNG) facility in the Texas Gulf Coast – which shipped gas to Europe – has also squeezed supplies.
No chance. Before the war, Russia supplied 40% of Europe’s gas supplies so limitations storing gas or ramping up imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in certain countries including Germany make replacing Russian gas entirely near impossible in the short term. EU leaders have downplayed the likelihood of a total ban on Russian gas as it is seen as impractical and politically divisive.
Instead, nations are racing to fill up their storage caverns earlier in the year than usual. Europe’s underground storage caverns are 57% currently full. The European Commission has asked each country to reach 80% storage by the start of November, with Germany targeting 90% by the same
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