What investors expect from India's election outcome
India's six-week long national election, the world's largest, has entered its final stage with votes scheduled to be counted on June 4, and investors are gearing up for Prime Minister Narendra Modi's widely expected third term in office.
However, the margin of victory may be smaller than earlier expected, analysts and informal betting markets are speculating.
Here are the main themes and comments from over 10 fund managers Reuters spoke to on their expectations based on different scenarios.
HOW WILL MARKETS REACT?
Indian equities outperformed most major markets in 2023 and are trading at expensive valuations. Yet, they could see a short term boost if the Modi administration comes back to power in a rare third consecutive term for any Indian government, fund managers said, as it would suggest policy continuity and political stability.
The benchmark BSE Sensex Index is up 4% so far this year, with a Reuters poll of equity analysts indicating the index could double the gains by the end of the year.
Foreign investors poured in a net $20.74 billion into Indian equities last year, the most in emerging markets in Asia, but have pulled back this year ahead of the election.
A lower margin of victory for Modi could lead to short-term volatility, fund managers said, while a win for the opposition could lead to a sharper correction due to policy uncertainty.
«The market is looking at continuity, so a coalition government or another party winning is not the expectation,» said Mittul Kalawadia, senior equity fund manager
