What makes India's rise and China's fall inevitable? Shifting numbers
India will be the fastest growing major economy in the world for the next three years. China's growth has been estimated to slow to 5.4% in 2023 and to 4.6% in 2024 and edge slightly higher at 4.8% in 2025 before settling at 4.6% in 2026-dragged down largely by its property market woes and slowing demand. S&P said it expects Asia-Pacific's growth engine to shift from China to South and Southeast Asia.
The decline of China, and at the same time the rise of India, has one common factor: population. Chinese are shrinking in number and aging, which is bad for the manufacturing powerhouse which needs young labour to stay in the leadership position. India, on the other hand, has more than 50% of its population below the age of 25 and more than 65% below the age of 35. SO many young people at work will propel economic growth if the government policies align.
Shifting population numbers make India's rise and China's decline inevitable.
China's baby problem
As per the Chinese government, the population dropped by 2 million people in 2023 in the second straight annual drop as births fell and deaths jumped after the lifting of COVID-19 restrictions, AP has reported.
China's population dropped for a second straight year as deaths jumped after Covid lockdowns ended
China’s ruling Communist Party is facing a national emergency. To fix it, the party wants more women to have more babies. It has offered them sweeteners, like cheaper housing, tax benefits and cash. It has also invoked patriotism, calling on them to be “good wives and mothers”.
The number of births fell for the seventh year, reflecting a fall in the birth rate that is a long-running economic and societal challenge for China. The population is
