What’s next for Pakistan, and India, after Imran Khan’s imprisonment

livemint.com:

Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party had won the positions of chairman to several tehsil councils in Peshawar’s local government by-elections. In any path forward, therefore, the PML-N, PPP and army face the reality of Khan’s continuing mass appeal.

Indeed, despite having come to power with its support, the former prime minister might have changed popular expectations and views of the army during his brief stint in power, by being willing to challenge it openly and consistently. While the army crushed the May protests and used the opportunity to target and create fissures in the PTI leadership, there were also reports of dissent within its ranks on the actions against Khan.

This perhaps explains the now widespread feeling that national elections will not take place on time. The official excuse is that the elections must be held on the basis of the results of the latest census, which will involve the creation of new voter rolls, delimitation of new constituencies, and the resolution of several potential legal challenges.

All of this will likely take longer than the legally stipulated 90 days from the dissolution of the National Assembly. Provincial elections in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have already been delayed on the pretext of concerns about terrorism.

The Pakistani deep state may appear to be undecided on the country’s path forward, but the old template of delaying elections using ostensibly legitimate political or security reasons could mean that Pakistan is on its way to a new form of political governance – one in which the army dispenses with political parties and elections altogether. A caretaker government staffed by technocrats, if given a reasonable run, may not be such a bad thing for Pakistan’s economy at least.