What Trump’s election could mean for Canadian rates and the loonie

globalnews.ca:

Experts say Donald Trump’s election victory could shift interest rate policy in the U.S. as his promised policies risk higher inflation, which could ultimately have implications for Canadian rates and the loonie.

Among those promises are large tariffs on imported goods, especially from China, as well as lower tax rates and lighter regulation.

Trump has promised that with him as president, “inflation will vanish completely.” But some have raised concern that his economic policies could actually put upward pressure on inflation, and in turn, slow the pace of interest rate cuts expected from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

“Tradition tells us that that increase in tariffs will increase inflation in the U.S.,” said Sheila Block, an economist with the Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives.

Higher inflation would mean the U.S. Federal Reserve could be slower to cut interest rates, and markets are already shifting their bets on how low the central bank is likely to go on rates.

“If you’re enacting tariffs and pressing hard on the accelerator and creating job shortages and scarcity and wage inflation by running the economy hot, then the Fed won’t necessarily have as much license to cut rates as soon or as deeply as they would otherwise,” said Brian Madden, chief investment officer with First Avenue Investment Counsel.

The U.S. central bank cut its key rate as expected on Thursday by a quarter of a percentage point, lowering its benchmark overnight interest rate to the 4.5 per cent to 4.75 per cent range.

Following the election, markets started to price in a slightly higher neutral rate for the Fed, according to a TD Economics report Wednesday. That means markets believe the Fed will end its cutting cycle at a higher rate than