When mini liquor bottles and single cigarette sales speak, economists hear recession warning

recession are mounting as economic indicators—both traditional and unconventional—point to growing financial strain. Consumers are cutting back on discretionary spending, companies are tightening their forecasts, and market volatility is rising, all while U.S. President Donald Trump’s trade policies continue to rattle investor confidence.

Economists define a recession as a “significant decline in economic activity” lasting more than a few months, often marked by a drop in GDP, rising unemployment, and weaker industrial production. While some analysts maintain that the economy remains stable for now, Goldman Sachs recently raised the probability of a recession this year to 20%.

Beyond traditional metrics, a range of unconventional indicators are flashing red, from declining sales of men’s underwear to an uptick in purchases of miniature liquor bottles.

Consumers pull back: Liquor minis and cigarettes see a shift

Signs of economic anxiety are increasingly visible in consumer behavior. Sales of 50-milliliter liquor bottles, often called «airplane bottles» or “nips,” have risen, with whiskey and tequila makers reporting increased demand for the smaller, cheaper alternatives to full-sized bottles. While these purchases may seem like an effort to cut costs, the price per ounce is often higher than larger bottles—an indication that consumers are prioritizing immediate affordability over long-term savings.

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Cigarette sales are showing a similar trend. While tobacco consumption tends to hold steady during