Where America’s most prominent short-sellers are placing their bets
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. “I have to giggle," says Jim Chanos, asked if investors have become overly optimistic about artificial intelligence. “We’ve got to the ‘data-centres-in-space’ stage of the cycle." Firms from SpaceX and Blue Origin to Alphabet plan to shrug off earthly constraints on the computing clusters that power AI, and launch them into orbit.
To Mr Chanos, who is perhaps Wall Street’s most experienced short-seller, such pharaonic ambitions immediately ring alarm bells. Yet even he hesitates to say definitively that share prices are in a bubble: “That’s something we’ll only be able to tell with hindsight." You might think that short-sellers like Mr Chanos, who bet on prices falling rather than rising, are looking forward to a bonanza. With plenty of stockmarkets near all-time highs, there is surely no end of juicy targets.
Conventional ways of valuing shares (which compare prices to fundamentals such as underlying earnings, sales or assets) show American stocks to be nearly as expensive as during the dotcom bubble, or even more so (see chart 1). And investors convinced of the profitmaking potential of AI are backing companies to fire data centres into space. With hopes so high, betting on disappointment has rarely seemed so tempting.
To test this idea, The Economist spoke to three of America’s most prominent shorts. Mr Chanos is best known for having predicted the downfall of Enron, a fraudulent energy-trading giant that collapsed in 2001. Carson Block rose to fame in 2011 after shorting Sino-Forest, a forestry firm that was felled amid a fraud scandal.
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