Why a strategist with a nose for stock market crashes is nervous

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Will 2025 go down in history with 1987 and 2008? At least one strategist with an impressive record thinks that could be the case. InvesTech Research’s Jim Stack has called more than his fair share of downturns.

He predicted Black Monday and warned clients of the housing bubble before the 2008-2009 financial crisis. He was also cautious in September 2018 as that year’s selloff was getting under way. It is no surprise, then, that when Stack makes predictions, people listen.

His most recent report was on Feb. 21, just days after the S&P 500 index’s recent peak. There are a number of factors that worry him.

To address the elephant in the room, he thinks that tariffs certainly have the power to be disruptive. But he said that more often than not, “trade wars have resulted in some initial uncertainty and market volatility, which is usually temporary," with notable exceptions like the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act in the 1930s. That is because in recent decades, tariffs have typically been applied “more judiciously and strategically," making them less likely to send the market into a nosedive.

Of course, “judicious" and “strategic" are likely not the first words to come to mind considering the chaotic rollout of tariffs since President Donald Trump took office. That may go some way toward explaining why the market has reacted so badly. Still, Stack notes that while the magnitude of today’s tariffs seems worrying at first glance, they don’t seem prohibitive given a longer time frame.

They could be valuable for bargaining if not fully implemented, he says. What is concerning is their potential impact on inflation, which has proven extremely stubborn, as measured by multiple gauges. That has led