Why Asteroid 2024 YR4’s impact probability keeps changing regularly? Find out the reasons
Asteroid 2024 YR4, discovered recently, has quickly become one of the most closely monitored space rocks due to its potential risk of collision with Earth. Initial assessments placed its impact probability at 3.1 per cent (NASA) and 2.8 per cent (ESA) for December 2032, surpassing the risk level once associated with the Apophis asteroid in 2004.
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But soon, NASA revised its estimate to 1.5 per cent, a significant drop. This fluctuation is not unusual, as astronomers expect impact probabilities to change as they gather more observational data and refine their calculations.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: Why impact probabilities keep changing
The shifting impact probabilities of 2024 YR4 can be attributed to several factors.
When an asteroid is first detected, astronomers have limited observations to work with. As more data points become available, they can better determine its trajectory, which often leads to revisions in impact estimates.
The full moon recently hindered observations, leading to a temporary uncertainty in calculations. Once the moon moved out of the way, astronomers could collect clearer data, leading to the revised probability, reported CNN.
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