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Why Ather Energy could benefit from the oil price shock
war drags on, reducing the availability of fuel for internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles and forcing the government to allow oil marketing companies (OMCs) to raise fuel prices.The running cost of EVs is relatively cheaper than ICE vehicles. The only two pure-play EV companies in India – Ola Electric Mobility Ltd and Ather Energy Ltd – present a contrast.
While Ola has been grappling with issues regarding its products and customer service, Ather has steadily gained speed in terms of stock price and sales volume.Even as the Nifty 500 index has declined after the war began on 27 February, Ather's share price continued to climb, hitting a new all-time high of ₹805 on 30 March. In fact, the stock has gained nearly 150% since its listing on 6 May.Ather’s March sales volume of about 33,482 units, as per the Vahan website, indicates it is likely to report about 45% month-on-month growth after adjusting for the lower number of days in February.
A part of the growth can also be attributed to consumer preferences tilting towards EVs, given the availability and pricing concerns with ICE fuels.For the March quarter (Q4FY26), Ather is likely to report 16% quarter-on-quarter and 88% year-on-year growth in retail sales volume to about 77,000 units. Plus, Q4 earnings could get a boost from the price hike of ₹3,000 per vehicle undertaken when the quarter began.Ather’s Ebitda loss per vehicle was at ₹10,611 in Q3, and this could drop substantially in Q4 given robust volumes and a higher average selling price, even if there may not be a full turnaround.What’s more, the ministry of heavy industries has extended subsidies for electric two-wheelers worth maximum of ₹5,000 per vehicle till 31 July from the earlier expiry date of 31 March.
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