Why China is pulling ahead in the robotaxi race

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. A Journey in one of Pony.ai’s robotaxis is, in some respects, a familiar experience for anyone who has ridden in a cab in China. For one thing, the horn honks just as often.

Yet as the steering wheel moves of its own accord and a screen shows outlines of surrounding cars, it also feels futuristic. Pony.ai is one of a number of Chinese firms that have launched robotaxi services in recent years. The biggest, Apollo Go, has deployed more than 1,000 self-driving cars, mostly in China.

The service, which is owned by Baidu, a Chinese tech giant, hopes to have 20,000 robotaxis operating worldwide by 2027. Pony.ai has launched its service in four cities and WeRide in three. CaoCao Mobility, the ride-hailing arm of Geely, a Chinese carmaker, has started trials of its own in two cities.

A wider ecosystem is also taking shape. Momenta, an autonomous-software startup, is building robotaxis with SAIC, a state-owned carmaker. Xpeng, a maker of electric cars, recently said that it would start producing dedicated robotaxis next year.

China’s robotaxi industry is “on the cusp of commercial breakout", reckons HSBC, a bank. Revenues will grow from a little over $50m this year to nearly $50bn by 2035, according to Goldman Sachs, another bank, by which time a fleet of 1.9m robotaxis in China will account for 25% of all ride-hailing vehicles. UBS, one more bank, is even more bullish, forecasting that the market could be worth around $180bn by the late 2030s.

By some measures China’s robotaxi industry is already pulling ahead of America’s. Over 50 Chinese cities allow testing of self-driving cars on public roads. In at least ten of them commercial operations are up and running, twice the number in America.