Why Trump losers are the biggest stock market winners
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Wouldn’t it be ironic if the 2025 Trump trade was an anti-Trump trade, buying stocks in the places President Trump targets? This year Canadian, Colombian, Mexican, European and Chinese technology stocks are all outpacing the S&P 500, the dollar is down and the Magnificent Seven big tech companies—five of whose CEOs stood behind the president at his inauguration—have stopped leading the U.S. market up and turned into laggards.
The reality is that what looks like an anti-Trump trade is a big market rotation. Feeding into the moves are a bunch of disconnected events: prospects for peace in Ukraine, hope of stimulus in Germany, a pro-business turn in China, cheap artificial intelligence and a slowing U.S. economy.
This isn’t a standard rotation. Typically when the market rotates, winners turn into losers (and vice versa), clearly split by size and how expensive the stocks are. This time, big companies are still beating small, and expensive stocks, those at high multiples to their earnings, have performed roughly in line with cheap ones.
But the very biggest in the U.S. are struggling. Start with the one trade that is absolutely anti-Trump: Tesla.
Shares in the electric-car maker soared after the election as investors—wrongly in my view—bet that CEO Elon Musk’s new role as the chief Trump whisperer would benefit the company. Since peaking in mid-December the stock has plunged as it became obvious that Tesla’s climate-minded customer base was unimpressed with his swing to the right, although it is still up from Election Day. Tesla’s fall of more than 40% from its peak is merely the most extreme of the fading of the post-election excitement around the Mag7, which also includes Alphabet,
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