Will a West Asia conflict ruin the interim budget math?

livemint.com:

₹1.64 trillion for fertilizer subsidies, 13% lower than the revised estimates for FY24. Sitharaman had also estimated 5% higher excise duty collection from the petroleum sector in FY25 at ₹3.18 trillion. During the fiscal year, Centre’s excise duty receipts had declined by 4.8% annually to ₹3.04 trillion.

The budget had also projected a 10.5% nominal GDP growth in FY25 to ₹327.7 trillion. Experts said rising geopolitical tensions can have a bearing on investments and growth prospects. “Any disruption in the supply chain posing inflationary pressures could have some impact on India’s economic growth rate, as it will influence the policy rate setting decisions of the RBI.

There could be some constraint to growth in that regard depending on how the situation pans out," said Suranjali Tandon, Associate Professor at National Institute of Public Finance and Policy (NIPFP). Also, supply chain shocks could spark a trade policy response from India to make ensure there is adequate supply in the domestic market, said Tandon. India has taken the approach in the recent past of banning and putting restrictions on select farm produce to ensure domestic availability. India had also lowered import duty on edible oils in the recent past to cool domestic prices.

However, a surge in global oil prices could potentially add to excise duty collection and windfall profit tax, said Tandon. An expanding conflict in West Asia is a cause of concern for crude oil and natural prices, said Prashant Vasisht, senior vice president and co-group head, corporate ratings at ICRA. “About 20 million barrels per day of crude oil and condensate equivalent to about a fifth of the global consumption pass through the Strait of Hormuz of which about 70% comes to