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The US already supplies about 5% of India's crude imports. These are mostly delivered by traders on competitive terms. Now, Trump expects India to import more, regardless of the competitiveness of supplies. This may prompt Indian state-run refiners to go back to their 2017-18 playbook, when they began purchasing US crude under Trump 1.0 pressure.
Refiners issued standalone tenders exclusively for US crude, eliminating competition from nearby countries with freight advantages. The rationale for such tenders was diversification of crude oil sources. The diversification plea both protected refinery executives and helped boost diplomatic ties with the US.
Access to US crude gave India an opportunity to balance its overwhelming dependence on West Asian oil. In Feb 2019, just a day ahead of Mohammed bin Salman's visit to India, top refiner Indian Oil issued a rare statement about a term deal it had struck to buy oil worth $1.5 bn from the US, offering a glimpse of New Delhi's strategic thinking at the time.
India's reliance on West Asian crude has since fallen. Russia is the top supplier, accounting for a third of its imports due to discounted barrels. A forced increase in US imports could raise costs and affect profit margins for refiners. An industry executive, however, points out the current large differential between the US crude benchmark WTI and
