We’re still figuring out how AI will move through the economy, says OpenAI's chief economist

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. At every dinner party, Aaron ‘Ronnie’ Chatterji, OpenAI's first chief economist, faces a typical question: “Is AI going to affect my job? What’s it going to do to the economy?" He says it's hard to give a straight answer simply because of the widely varying predictions. “Some Nobel Prize-winning economists estimate AI’s impact on GDP in the low single digits, while others expect double-digit growth.

That’s how uncertain things are," Chatterji told Mint in an interview during his India visit on Tuesday. The effect of AI on jobs is similarly debated. “Some studies suggest AI will affect only a small fraction of jobs, while others say up to 80% of job tasks could change.

We’re still figuring out how AI will move through the economy." However, Chatterji is optimistic. "I’ve spent time with the people building these models, and the speed of progress is incredible. What we could do a year ago is very different from what we can do today—and in just two months, the advancements have been astonishing." AI adoption is accelerating rapidly.

“The capabilities of these models are improving so fast that the economic impact will likely be magnified," Chatterji said. “Economists will need to conduct studies, run A/B tests (comparing the outcomes of two different choices—A and B—with a pilot), and interview workers to fully understand AI’s effects," he said. “Eventually, we’ll get precise numbers, but right now, we’re still in discovery mode." Read more: Adobe diversifies beyond its cash cow to sell AI to businesses Chatterji agreed that AI’s pace of change is much faster than that of previous technological revolutions.