Will US action in Venezuela push oil lower—and become a tailwind for Indian markets?
US operation in the South American nation should drive crude oil lower over time which should be positive for India, said Ashish Gupta, chief investment officer of Axis Mutual Fund. He added that he did not expect a knee-jerk reaction from markets at opening on Monday.“In the past two to three years, markets have not reacted significantly to geopolitical events whether in Europe or West Asia and I don't expect one after the Venezuela takeover either.
Rather, our markets will be guided by domestic fundamentals like earnings growth and fiscal prudence by the Centre,” Gupta added.On 3 January, the US reportedly carried out airstrikes on Caracas in the backdrop of heightened tensions in the Caribbean and its recent interdictions of vessels alleged to be carrying narcotics in Venezuelan waters. The White House has said the operation was aimed at dismantling narco-terrorist networks and halting weapons flows to anti-US forces, and claimed it resulted in the “capture” of Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro.Nilesh Shah, managing director at Kotak Mahindra Mutual Fund, said market volatility could increase, as it was “extremely difficult to gauge the secondary impact of the unprecedented event”.While Shah expects markets to break out in 2026 after nearly a year and a half of consolidation, supported by improved corporate earnings growth, he said investor expectations should be tempered to accept high single-digit to low double-digit returns—unlike the strong double-digit gains seen in the post-Covid period through September 2024.Indian equities struck a positive note early in the new year, with the Nifty 50 scaling record highs on Friday, 2 January, amid optimism around December-quarter earnings and expectations of a pro-growth
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