Would Allies Fight With U.S. for Taiwan? Japan Is Wary
TOKYO—American and Japanese military officials have been working on a plan for a conflict over Taiwan for more than a year, but the talks have yet to resolve a central question: Would Japan join the fight? Washington has nudged Tokyo to consider roles for the Japanese military such as hunting for Chinese submarines around Taiwan, said people familiar with the discussions, without getting any commitment. The planning is one of the most important aspects of the U.S. response to Beijing’s threats to capture Taiwan by force.
At its closest, Japan is just 70 miles from the democratically self-governing island, and it hosts some 54,000 U.S. troops, concentrated on the southern island of Okinawa. If China moves to seize Taiwan and the U.S.
intervenes, as President Biden has said it would, the first response would likely come from those U.S. bases. Under an agreement dating from the 1960s, the U.S.
would need Japan’s approval—but Tokyo would feel pressure to provide that, as refusing would jeopardize the alliance that ensures its security. Getting Japan to engage in the fight directly would be harder. Japanese leaders publicly shun discussion of a role in any Taiwan war, in part because public opinion is generally against getting ensnared in a conflict.
“If you ask the question of whether you are willing to risk your life to defend Taiwan, I think 90% of Japanese people would say ‘no’ at this point," said Satoru Mori, a professor of politics at Keio University in Tokyo. Tokyo is investing heavily in long-range cruise missiles and other hardware in response to China’s growing arsenal, but it says the buildup is strictly for self-defense. “We have to spend more on military deterrence and response capabilities to reduce the risk
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