You might get a bigger Social Security check next year. Here's why

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Bolvin Wealth Management Group President Gina Bolvin discusses the move in commodities, expected inflation data, the housing industry and her outlook for consumers.

Social Security recipients are on track to receive a cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) next year that is bigger than previously expected as inflations remains uncomfortably high.

Mary Johnson, a retired Social Security and Medicare analyst, estimated the adjustment could be about 3.2%, based on April inflation data, which showed the consumer price index climbed 0.3% from the previous month and is up 3.4% from the same time last year.

The annual Social Security change is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or the CPI-W, from July, August and September. The CPI-W also posted a 3.4% increase in April.

Should Social Security beneficiaries see a 3.2% increase in their monthly checks next year, it would mark a steep decline from 2023, when recipients saw an 8.7% bump. However, it remains higher than the 2.6% average increase recorded over the past two decades.

AMERICANS ARE CARRYING A RECORD AMOUNT OF HOUSEHOLD DEBT

The annual Social Security change is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers from July, August and September. (Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images / Getty Images)

An increase of that magnitude would raise the average retirement benefit of $1,907 by about $61 per month. 

Even with last year's cost-of-living increase, many retirees say they are struggling to keep up with high inflation, according to Johnson.

This year's 3.2% benefit increase exceeded the actual rate of inflation in March and April.

WHY ARE GROCERIES STILL SO EXPENSIVE?

«The higher inflation