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Every month, Mint Plain Facts brings out an update on key global data to thread together the biggest developments in the world that are worth paying attention to. The accompanying analysis and charts explain how each story is creating ripples on the global stage, where it is headed in the coming weeks, and whether it can impact India.Here are the five key global events:After US and Israel air strikes on 28 February killed Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the West Asian nation has been fighting a high-risk survival war.It has responded to the US-Israel offensive, mostly targeting its capital, Tehran, by attacking nearly all nearby Gulf countries, widening the conflict.

US President Donald J. Trump’s extraordinary gamble in attacking Iran and risking a wider conflagration in West Asia dials up the economic hazards facing the US economy from ‘very high”’ to ‘extreme.’ This new stress compounds a series of other pressures already facing the economy, which is now even more unlikely to emerge unscathed.The near danger is a setback in financial markets that gets out of hand. In many ways, some such reversal was already overdue, given the apparent overvaluation of US equities, the weight placed by tariffs on the economy’s back, a still-deteriorating fiscal outlook and stubborn inflation.

Could India be returning to Russia for oil supplies? Going by a Bloomberg report, it seems so. Two shipments of Russian crude oil that were originally headed for East Asia have reportedly been redirected towards India and are expected to unload this week, with one already having reached Paradip.

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Those who view President Donald Trump’s strikes on Iran as a blow to China should think again. Beijing will manage any potential leadership change in Tehran as long as the oil keeps flowing, a summit with Trump and President Xi Jinping stays on track, and Washington handles Taiwan—China’s most sensitive red line—with care. Xi’s strategy is closer to the ancient Chinese phrase that notes the benefit of sitting on the mountain and watching the tigers fight: conserve strength while others exhaust themselves, and intervene only if core interests are directly threatened.Beijing doesn’t think of alliances the way the US does.

drive up natural gas prices and freight costs, industry officials and analysts said.Although the government makes a provisional estimate of the fertilizer subsidy at the start of the financial year—based on sowing patterns, irrigated area and historical demand—it carries an implicit obligation to enhance the allocation if unforeseen developments arise.Currently, the fertilizer subsidy is projected at ₹1.71 trillion for the next financial year, slightly lower compared to the revised estimate of ₹1.86 trillion for the ongoing 2025-26 fiscal (FY26)."If the crisis persists for long, the fertilizer prices are expected to go up which might require higher subsidies," said an industry official on the condition of anonymity. In the past, the government has been making special financial provisions for additional subsidies in case of a spike in global prices.Natural gas, the primary feedstock and energy source for urea production, accounts for a bulk of fertilizer manufacturing costs, making the sector highly sensitive to price spikes.Research firm Zero Carbon Analytics has said that of the top countries that import oil and gas via the Strait of Hormuz, Japan faces the most direct risk of disruption, due to its high share of oil and gas trade through the shipping route and its reliance on imported oil and gas.

crude flows, has emerged as a flashpoint after US and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory actions by Tehran. While there has been no formal closure, heightened uncertainty has been enough for carriers to alter schedules and pause sailings.Shipping majors including Mediterranean Shipping Company and A.P.

petroleum ministry is taking continuous stock of the energy supply scenario along with the refiners. They are looking at ways to ensure that supplies are not interrupted.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Iran has sought for years to build closer military ties with China and Russia, but its powerful friends are proving reluctant to step forward as the regime faces the most acute U.S. threat to its survival in decades.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. WASHINGTON—President Trump is at a crossroads that could define his legacy: He could sign a deal that curbs Iran’s nuclear program, or launch a war with hard-to-control consequences for the U.S. and the Middle East.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. As Iran and the United States return to the negotiating table over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions, the geopolitical stakes have shifted. While Iran enters these discussions, which began on 6 January, on much weaker footing than in the past, US President Donald Trump arrives emboldened by the recent success of the Venezuela operation.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. New Delhi: India is working on a playbook to operate the Chabahar port in Iran after the US waiver on sanctions against Tehran ends in March, said two people aware of New Delhi’s stance to balance its ties with its longtime Persian Gulf trade partner and the world’s largest economy. As the geopolitical situation eases and if sanctions on infrastructure are lifted, India would look at ways to remain engaged and operate the terminal given its strategic significance, said the first person quoted earlier, speaking on the condition of anonymity.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Is Tehran moving towards ‘zero day’? Don’t get alarmed. I am not suggesting a possible US attack, but an unprecedented water stress that has gripped the Iranian capital.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Iran’s missile program was born of weakness in the early years of the Islamic Republic. Now the question is whether it is formidable enough to head off a military confrontation with President Trump.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Iran’s abandonment of a planned meeting with U.S. and regional officials in Turkey in hopes of holding more narrowly defined talks in Oman is right out of the regime’s hardball playbook—a last-minute curveball aimed at leaving everyone else off balance.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. “A PRINCE OUGHT to inspire fear," wrote Niccolo Machiavelli, but “he must endeavour only to avoid hatred", lest it prove his undoing. By that measure Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, is failing.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. President Trump’s ultimatum to Iran to negotiate away its nuclear program or face a possible attack leaves Tehran with a daunting dilemma: Either path risks putting the already weakened regime in a more precarious position. “Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal—NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS—one that is good for all parties.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Saudi Arabia on Tuesday ruled out the use of its airspace and territory for a potential U.S. attack on Iran, complicating the Trump administration’s options in response to Tehran’s violent crackdown against Iranian protesters.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Iran exported more oil in 2025 than it had done in years, smuggling crude in defiance of sanctions, mainly to China. At the same time, the regime’s profits from the commodity collapsed.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. WASHINGTON—After pulling back from strikes on Iran last week, President Trump is still pressing aides for what he terms “decisive" military options, U.S. officials said, as Iran appears to have tightened its control of the country and targets protesters through a crackdown that has killed thousands.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. From a certain angle, US President Donald Trump is doing in a matter of weeks what other leaders could never have dreamt of: Assembling an oil cartel with sufficient sway to rival Opec and acquiring a kill switch for the energy-importing economy of America’s prime geopolitical rival, China. Combine Trump’s supposed hegemony over the Americas since the capture of former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on 3 January with control over a post-revolution Iran, and you’re at about 42% of global oil production.