Gulf tensions may push India’s fertilizer subsidy bill higher

drive up natural gas prices and freight costs, industry officials and analysts said.Although the government makes a provisional estimate of the fertilizer subsidy at the start of the financial year—based on sowing patterns, irrigated area and historical demand—it carries an implicit obligation to enhance the allocation if unforeseen developments arise.Currently, the fertilizer subsidy is projected at ₹1.71 trillion for the next financial year, slightly lower compared to the revised estimate of ₹1.86 trillion for the ongoing 2025-26 fiscal (FY26)."If the crisis persists for long, the fertilizer prices are expected to go up which might require higher subsidies," said an industry official on the condition of anonymity. In the past, the government has been making special financial provisions for additional subsidies in case of a spike in global prices.Natural gas, the primary feedstock and energy source for urea production, accounts for a bulk of fertilizer manufacturing costs, making the sector highly sensitive to price spikes.Research firm Zero Carbon Analytics has said that of the top countries that import oil and gas via the Strait of Hormuz, Japan faces the most direct risk of disruption, due to its high share of oil and gas trade through the shipping route and its reliance on imported oil and gas.

South Korea ranks second-most at risk and India third.The Strait of Hormuz, which handles nearly a fifth of global crude flows, has emerged as a flashpoint after US and Israeli strikes on Iran and retaliatory actions by Tehran. While there has been no formal closure, heightened uncertainty has been enough for carriers to alter schedules and pause sailings.While India has over the past few years been diversifying its energy