Iran Financial News

This week the focus is on the widening war in West Asia, which matters to us as there are 9-10 million Indian expatriates in the region.It’s now day 7 of Operation Epic Fury, launched jointly by the US and Israel on 28 February. It’s what we were all warned about for years, perhaps even decades – a conflagration in West Asia. As it stood, Iran was at its weakest in decades and Israel perhaps saw it as too good an opportunity to pass up.

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From stranded shipping vessels near Strait of Hormuz amid the West Asia conflict, to the change in sectoral share due to revision in GDP base year, manufacturing and services activity moving in different directions in February, collections in goods and services tax (GST) signalling a post-cut recovery, and the government’s renewed push to faster adoption of electric vehicles, here’s a compilation of this week’s news in numbers.The US-Israel-Iran conflict is threatening to put the global order in chaos, particularly for the flow of gas and oil. At its core is the Strait of Hormuz—a narrow chokepoint through which over a quarter of global oil trade passes—where Iran holds strategic control.According to Kpler's analysis of 223 container vessels between 28 February and 4 March, at least 37 were unable to exit the Gulf, meaning they cannot resume rotations until transit reopens.

Fertilizer is the largest commodity, the global price of which has a direct bearing on subsidy bills. In the case of petroleum, central subsidy is limited to cooking gas and kerosene, and often, state-owned auto-fuel retailers absorb the volatility in global prices by spreading out retail fuel price adjustments.On Friday, the government assured adequate fertilizer availability for the upcoming kharif season starting June.

Mumbai: The Indian stock markets slumped to their weakest weekly performance in 14 months, after conflict erupted in the Middle East between the US, Israel and Iran on 28 February.Benchmark indices NSE Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex dropped nearly 3% through the week, marking their steepest decline since the week ended 22 December 2024, when markets had corrected over 4% amid concerns over the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and rising bond yields.On Friday, the Nifty 50 fell 1.27% to close at 24,450.45, while the Sensex declined 1.37% to end at 78,918.88, extending their decline following the prior session’s relief rally.Rising crude oil prices and continued selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) weighed on sentiment. Currency weakness added further pressure, with the rupee hitting a record low of 92.1488 against the US dollar on 4 March (Wednesday).Market volatility also spiked during the week, with the India VIX (Volatility Index)—a measure of the market’s expectation of volatility in the Indian stock market over the next 30 days—rising from 13.70 to 19.88, signalling heightened investor nervousness and expectations of larger market swings ahead.To be sure, Indian equities’ fall was milder than several Asian markets.

South Korea’s 16% stock plunge this past week. In the U.S., any inflation uptick could deprive investors of more interest-rate cuts. Or perhaps worse, the Federal Reserve could cut rates later this year, and depending on the circumstances, be judged by the bond market as giving President Donald Trump what he wants, but not necessarily giving the economy what it needs.A quick and tidy exit in Iran is no sure thing.

Mint, citing low prices, adequate strategic reserves, and the government’s ability to cushion fuel shocks from spilling into retail prices.In January, the Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based inflation, under a revised data series, stood at around 2.75%, significantly below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) medium-term target of 4%.With inflation currently subdued and a newly introduced CPI series indicating broadly similar trends to the old base-year data, the economists said the starting point itself provides a strong buffer against external shocks, likely preventing any immediate pressure on retail inflation or RBI's monetary policy outlook.For 2025-26, the RBI has projected CPI inflation at 2.1%, with the March quarter at 3.2%. Inflation for the June and September quarters is seen at 4% and 4.2%, respectively, suggesting the current price environment is far more benign than during previous geopolitical shocks.“I think the starting point is more comfortable for RBI at this juncture, given that inflation is more manageable now compared with the Russia-Ukraine war, when global commodity prices surged sharply,” Anubhuti Sahay, head of India economic research at Standard Chartered Bank, said.Sahay added that policymakers are unlikely to rush to revise projections or change the policy stance until there is greater clarity on how long the war will last and how significantly it will disrupt global energy markets.

The Iran conflict has raised panic among retail direct investors who prefer investing in small and midcap stocks (Smids) and trading directly on the markets, unlike their mutual fund counterparts.This is borne out by activity data released by the National Stock Exchange (NSE) for Monday, the first day after markets reacted to the outbreak of war in the Middle East.It shows that retail investors sold shares worth ₹3,508.51 crore, more than foreign institutional investors' (FIIs) outflows of ₹3,070.55 crore, per NSE data. NSE had almost 93% share in the equity cash market as of January end, with the BSE accounting for the rest.Data on investor activity for Wednesday and Thursday will be available with a lag.

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Could India be returning to Russia for oil supplies? Going by a Bloomberg report, it seems so. Two shipments of Russian crude oil that were originally headed for East Asia have reportedly been redirected towards India and are expected to unload this week, with one already having reached Paradip.

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Stock market recap: The Indian stock market saw strong buying interest on 5 March, largely driven by short covering after a sharp sell-off that had dragged benchmark indices down about 4% in just a few days.The Sensex jumped 900 points, or 1.14%, to close at 80,015.90. Its NSE counterpart, the Nifty 50, rose 1.17% to end at 24,765.90.Buying was broad-based across the market.

West Asia conflict could ease.The benchmark Nifty50 index recovered close to half of its recent losses in the last hour on Thursday, as reports emerged that Iran had reached out to the US for talks to end the war, improving risk appetite. The news coincided with the weekly expiry of Sensex options on Thursday, which also forced the traders to square off their positions in panic.The US and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran on Saturday that killed its supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, triggering retaliation and fuelling a wider regional conflict in West Asia, dragging stock markets around the world lower.Over two trading sessions starting Monday, the Nifty50 had fallen 695 points, of which 285 points—about 41%—were recouped on Thursday.

The Iran-US conflict has sent shockwaves through Indian markets, pushing the rupee to a record low of 92.32 and driving crude oil past $80 per barrel. As the Nifty 50 shed 2.1% in just four days, foreign investors pulled out over ₹11,700 crore, seeking safety in a strengthening dollar.With the Strait of Hormuz blockade threatening energy supplies and squeezing margins for oil and chemical firms, investors are caught between gold's safe-haven appeal and rising macroeconomic headwinds.Mintexplains what this nascent war and the resulting supply shocks mean for your portfolio and the road ahead for Indian equities.Since the Iran-US war began on 28 February, equity markets worldwide have fallen.The Nifty 50 index declined 2.1% between 28 February and 4 March, while the Nikkei fell 5.5%, the Hang Seng 4.5%, and the Kospi 8.9% over the same period.

₹3,296 crore. Tuesday was a market holiday.On Wednesday, provisional BSE data showed that FIIs were net sellers of Indian equities worth Rs8,753 crore, while DIIs stepped in as net buyers, purchasing shares worth Rs12,068 crore.

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Stock market recap: It was a bloodbath on Dalal Street on Wednesday, as the Indian stock market suffered sharp losses on March 4 amid investor dumping of risk assets amid the ongoing US-Iran war, which shows no signs of easing.The conflict in West Asia has pushed crude oil prices significantly higher, stoking fresh inflation concerns and dealing a strong blow to expectations of near-term rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the Reserve Bank of India.Sensex crashed 1,123 points, or 1.40%, to end at 79,116.19, while the Nifty 50 plunged 385 points, or 1.55%, to close at 24,480.50. The BSE 150 MidCap Index crashed 2.26%, while the BSE 250 SmallCap Index suffered a loss of 2.24%.India VIX jumped over 23% to hover above the 21 mark, indicating heightened nervousness in the market.Buy: Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd(current price: ₹1,750)Buy: Solar Industries India Ltd (current price: ₹14,523)Indian equities ended sharply lower on March 4, with Nifty 50 declining 385 points, or 1.55%, to close at 24,480.50, after slipping to an intraday low of 24,305.40.

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