Ukraine Financial News

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.Wall Street traders have become preoccupied by one particular market indicator.Some refer to it as the Treasury breakeven inflation curve and, while that’s a bit of a mouthful, it’s simply the market’s expectation of average inflation over two periods.The breakeven inflation rate for the 2-year and 10-year reveal how the market thinks prices would behave in the near- and long-term. Plotting the difference between these two expected inflation rates delivers this so-called curve, which has been under intense scrutiny.The breakeven curve “highlights the markets moving on from the [Iran] conflict,” wrote Barry Knapp, managing partner of Ironsides Macroeconomics, underneath a video posted Monday.How? Consider what happened after Russia invaded Ukraine and after President Donald Trump unveiled punitive tariffs.

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories.India’s nearly 80 million micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs)—employing over 328.2 million people and contributing 31.1% to gross domestic product (GDP), 35.4% to manufacturing output, and 48.58% to exports—have been navigating a harsh global environment over the past five years. From the covid-19 pandemic-induced economic standstill to cost shocks triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, recurring volatility in West Asia, and trade disruptions under the Trump administration, the sector has faced repeated stress.

The El Niño phenomenon could result in one of the driest monsoons in India in at least eight years.Private forecaster Skymet has predicted: the rainfall is likely to be 94% of the long-period average (LPA), or below-normal. While the predictions are in line with broader expectations of low rainfall, Skymet is known for giving more conservative predictions than the official India Meteorological Department (IMD).Both agencies fail to predict the intensity of rainfall accurately more often than not, but Skymet’s track record has worsened in recent years.

The turmoil of the last year-and-a half— tariff wars and physical wars (Iran, Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine), the abduction of a head of state and assassination of another, territorial ambitions and tattered alliances—has led to claims that the Pax Americana of stable global institutions managing commerce and conflict has ended. If that is true, what comes next? This uncertainty has fostered many forecasts of the future of global politics by policy pundits.Consider the analysis of Hal Brands, a historian at Johns Hopkins University and the American Enterprise Institute.

For at least a decade, developing countries across Asia and Africa have worried about growing dependent on the People’s Republic of China. They’re concerned about debt traps, coercive policies and hidden costs that might push their economies toward crisis.Crisis has come, and that logic has been turned on its head. After six weeks of the US and Israel’s war on Iran and its ensuing counter-attacks, it is the countries that bet on Chinese supply chains that are faring better than the ones that had trusted Pax Americana.

An old commodity-trade adage is that the Middle East “sells hydrocarbons to buy carbohydrates.” The desert states send out their oil and natural gas, and in comes wheat and rice. There are a few things produced in the Gulf, however, that are crucial to global food production: nitrogen fertilizer such as urea and ammonia, and the gas used to make them.So the war in Iran—and its blockage of the Strait of Hormuz waterway—has prompted warnings about another bout of global food inflation similar to the one that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Despite such fears, the agricultural market isn’t at risk today, at least in the short term.

trade deficit and high gold imports.The impact of the war-led disruptions—built on top of the calibrated depreciation—pushed the rupee towards a level not previously anticipated. Even then, economists believe that the RBI should not defend the rupee too much as it may provide temporary relief, but could stoke sharper depreciation later."If this is a long-drawn-out crisis, you want to preserve your forex reserves because when we got into trouble in 2013, our reserves went down, then the taper tantrum made it worse," said Gaura Sengupta, chief economist at IDFCFirst Bank.Forex reserves declined 3.4% and 0.6% in FY12 and FY13, but failed to arrest the rupee’s decline.

Mint, he said such corrections often create compelling entry points for long-term investors.Markets tend to react sharply to geopolitical events, especially in the early stages. However, over time, volatility usually stabilizes as markets adjust. What makes the current situation more complex for India is its dependence on energy imports.

Vietnam War. It was 8 June 1972. Dozens of children were running for safety after the US bombing in Vietnam’s Trang Bang region.

Reserve Bank of India had adopted the inflation-targeting regime in 2016. While some have argued for raising the target or shifting focus from headline to core inflation, the dominant view is that the framework has broadly worked.Data shows inflation breached the band in only three of the past 10 years—two instances (2020–21 and 2022–23) driven by the pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war.

The juxtaposition of the Russia-Ukraine war and unfolding US-Israel-Iran war offers a compelling window to the evolving character of contemporary warfare. One is a protracted, grinding contest of endurance; the other, a sharp demonstration of rapid, multi-domain coercion. Yet, taken together, they underline a common truth: technological change has not simplified war, it has made it more complex, more diffuse and less predictable.

Five major central banks—the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Reserve Bank of Australia, and the Bank of Japan—met this week to deliver their rate decisions. Four of the five opted to pause and continue with existing policy rates.

One way or the other, an extended West Asia war will impact earnings growth, said Ajay Tyagi, senior executive vice president and head of Equity at UTI Asset Management Co.He believes, “If markets remain flat or correct further, leading to poor two-three year returns, SIP (systematic investment plan) flows may slow down”.Tyagi, who directly manages about ₹2.5 trillion worth of assets, explained that while the structural shift of household savings into markets remains strong, it will see ebbs and flows rather than move in a straight line.He said that SIP inflows, currently around $3 billion, will have their own cycles and are unlikely to keep rising indefinitely.Edited excerpts:For large caps, the correction is mostly over, as they have reached a fair valuation zone. While not yet ‘cheap’, which would mean falling below long-term averages, they are close enough to offer comfort.

Write to Ian Lovett at [email protected] all the Business News, Market News, Breaking News Events and Latest News Updates on Live Mint. Download The Mint News App to get Daily Market Updates.

You might have heard that the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz is going to leave poor countries starving. That’s not quite right. The reality may be almost as serious, though—and China will be the victor.The theory stems from the importance of the Persian Gulf in the world’s fertilizer trade.

Beneath the stated justifications of any war in history—righteous causes, nuclear threats, regime changes—the bedrock truth is the same. Conflict is and has always been a quest for resources. The Iran war is merely the latest chapter.

The Indian stock market is in a clear downtrend. We had barely taken a breather from harsh tariffs, and now we find ourselves caught up in the consequences of a war.Given our dependence on oil and gas imports and trade with West Asia, this has serious implications for India. And the markets are reflecting that.The pain is much sharper in broader markets than what indices reflect.

Foreign investors appear to be finding comfort in India’s power sector amid heightened geopolitical tensions and energy market disruptions, drawn by rising demand for electricity and growing data centre capacity.They bought power stocks worth $497 million in February, according to data from the National Securities Depository Ltd. That marked the strongest inflow by foreign investors since they pumped in $517 million in April 2024.Several power stocks delivered solid gains in February, when the benchmark Nifty 50 index slipped 0.6%.

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Mint, even during the Russia-Ukraine crisis, crude prices initially surged but eventually moderated as markets adjusted.He added that apart from geopolitical tensions, key risks for Indian markets include global liquidity conditions, movements in crude oil prices, and the availability of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and oil, as rising household energy costs could disrupt consumption momentum. Edited excerpts:Markets typically react first to headlines and then gradually reassess fundamentals.