El Niño News

The planet's average sea surface temperature spiked to a record high in April, and the ocean has remained exceptionally warm ever since. In July, widespread marine heat waves drove temperatures back up to near-record highs, with some hot spots nearing 100 degrees Fahrenheit (nearly 38 Celsius).

rising temperatures of ocean water, the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said that the average temperature touched 20.96 degrees Celsius or 69.7 Fahrenheit at the end of July this year. The previous highest temperature was recorded at 20.9 degrees Celsius in 2016.

World Trade Organization estimates that as of mid-July, 45 of the 104 restrictions on exports of food, feed and fertilizer that were introduced in the months after the invasion of Ukraine had been removed. It estimates that the remaining bans cover $24.5 billion of traded goods. “We must take care to avoid vicious circles of supply availability concerns leading to more export restrictions and higher prices," said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the WTO’s director-general.

Edited excerpts: How do you see the monsoon behaving in August? There is a level of uncertainty in prediction and distribution has got distorted. For example, North India is still excess of 26%, more than South and Central, though it should be the other way round. Average precipitation in North India is relatively lower, whereas East India gets the highest average rainfall as compared to the other regions.

finance ministry said on Thursday. «Indian economy’s domestic dynamics continue to be strong. Real GDP growth data for the last quarter of FY23 reaffirmed the ability of the Indian economy to grow on the strength of its domestic demand and investment despite a rise in global uncertainties and moderation in global output,» it said in its monthly economic report for June.

Thailand has urged farmers to reduce their rice planting to save water following poor rainfall, a move that poses a fresh threat to global supply after India banned some shipments of the grain. Farmers in the key central region have already planted most of their rice but the government is encouraging a switch to other crops that need less water, according to a statement from Surasri Kidtimonton, the secretary-general of the Office of the National Water Resources.

ANI, “Several districts are likely to receive extremely heavy rainfall in the next 2 days. In the next 24 hours, heavy rainfall is likely in North Odisha districts and other districts.

inflation is getting tougher. While concerns over the monsoon seem to dispel, food inflation might yet remain high. The RBI has recently said that the fight is far from over and monetary policy has to stay the course to align inflation with the target in this last leg of a strenuous journey. India's retail inflation rate is likely to breach the central bank's 6% tolerance ceiling again due to sticky pulses and cereal prices even as vegetable price pressures ease, pushing policymakers to raise inflation target in August meeting, Nomura has said in a report. Factors other than the monsoon have been increasingly shaping food inflation. A case in point is the 6%+ inflation print in three of the past four normal monsoon years, argues a Crisil report. Monsoon has been normal/above-normal at an all-India level over the past four years. Predictably, foodgrain production has risen in these years. Even then, food inflation, as measured by CPI, remained above 6% in three of these four years. The southwest monsoon started with a delay and stayed in deficit in June. However, it caught up well in July, and currently stands at normal (4% above long-period average, or LPA) as of August 1.

Mumbai city registered its wettest July ever on July 26 with the month so far witnessing a record 1557.8 mm of rainfall. Earlier, the record was set in July in 2020 when 1,502 mm of rainfall was logged by the IMD's Santacruz observatory (representative of Mumbai's suburbs), according to a report published by the news agency PTI.

hurricane season in the Atlantic typically gains momentum. Historically, the three most active months for hurricanes in the region are August, September, and October, spanning from June to November. American Forecasters have expressed confidence in the likelihood of an unusually busy hurricane season this year. The CSU team predicted a «borderline hyperactive» season with up to nine hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin during 2023. This upgrade was primarily attributed to the presence of extremely warm ocean waters, a favorable environment for storm formation, which could counteract the suppressing effects of El Niño, as per USA Today. As we delve deeper into August, meteorologists using weather forecasting models have noticed a potential increase in the necessary ingredients for storm development. The first two months of this season have already been quite active, with five storms and one hurricane reported by the end of July. This ranks as the fourth-most active start of any season since 1851. Fortunately, the United States has not faced any significant threats from tropical storms or hurricanes so far. June saw notable activity with three named storms, including Arlene, which brought some rain to South Florida after forming in the Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, two storms, Bret and Cindy, formed in the «main development region,» an unusual occurrence for June. This region in the Atlantic is known for generating many significant storms, especially during the peak of the season. However, neither Bret nor Cindy had any impact on the US. In July, there was a lull in storm activity, with only one named storm, Don, which briefly reached hurricane status in the open Atlantic.

normal rainfall during the second half of the monsoon season following excess precipitation in July, even as El Nino and other unfavourable conditions may suppress rain in August. Rainfall in August is predicted to be below normal (less than 94 per cent of LPA), but the situation is expected to improve comparatively in September, the IMD said.

monsoon season, 2023 is expected to be normal — 94 to 106% of Long Period Average (LPA), according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The rainfall will «most probably be on the negative side of the normal, meaning in the range of 94-99% of the LPA,» said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD. Most areas adjacent to the Himalayas, east central India and some parts of east and northeast India are likely to see normal to above normal rainfall during the August-September period.

El Nino phenomenon is not likely to affect Indian Monsoon for the second half. El Nino is generally associated with the weakening of monsoon winds and dry weather in India, according to IMD. El Nino is the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America.

monsoon season, 2023 is expected to be normal — 94 to 106% of Long Period Average (LPA), according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The rainfall will “most probably be on the negative side of the normal, meaning in the range of 94-99% of the LPA, said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD. Most areas adjacent to the Himalayas, east central India and some parts of east and northeast India are likely to see normal to above normal rainfall during the August-September period.

SkymetWeather reported that the monsoon is likely to enter a weak phase in August and the El Nino phenomena may also cast its shadow. It stated that a weak phase of monsoon is expected to start from 4 August.

Higher rice planting in India, the world's second biggest producer of the grain, will ease concerns about the lower output of the staple. Earlier this month, India ordered a halt to its largest rice export category — a move that will roughly halve shipments by the world's largest exporter of the grain. Farmers typically start planting rice, corn, cotton, soybeans, sugarcane and peanuts, among other crops, from June 1, when monsoon rains are expected to begin drenching India.

Hoping to stave off inflationary pressures on a diet staple, the Indian government is banning exports of non-Basmati white rice varieties

India announced that it was severely curtailing some rice exports to the rest of the world, triggering worry among the Indian diaspora in the United States that access to a food staple from home might soon be cut off. As in any crisis situation — think bottled water and toilet paper- some rushed to supermarkets to stock up, stacking carts with bags and bags of rice. In some places, lines formed outside some stores as panic buying ensued. But Rao, who lives near Syracuse, New York, was reassured when the proprietor of her Indian market sent out an email to customers to let them know there was no need to worry: There was an ample supply of rice. At least for now. An earlier than expected El Nino brought drier, warmer weather in some parts of Asia and is expected to harm rice production. But in some parts of India, where the monsoon season was especially brutal, flooding destroyed some crops, adding to production woes and rising prices.

Intense rains lashed several parts of India in the past few weeks with Himachal Pradesh being the worst affected as more than 180 people lost their life in rain-related incidents. Thousands of people were displaced and properties worth crore was destroyed in the floods triggered by heavy rains in the state.

Marcos Jr. said on Saturday his country must start importing rice to prepare for the impact of El Nino dry weather conditions on the local harvest, and may seek a supply deal with India.

Indian farmers have planted 23.7 million hectares with summer-sown rice so far, according to the farm ministry's latest data, up 1.71% year-on-year, as crucial monsoon rains revived in July and helped farmers accelerate sowing. Higher rice planting in India, the world's second biggest producer of the grain, will ease concerns about the lower output of the staple. Earlier this month, India ordered a halt to its largest rice export category — a move that will roughly halve shipments by the world's largest exporter of the grain.