Rainfall expected to be normal in August-September: IMD

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

monsoon season, 2023 is expected to be normal — 94 to 106% of Long Period Average (LPA), according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The rainfall will “most probably be on the negative side of the normal, meaning in the range of 94-99% of the LPA, said Dr Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general, IMD. Most areas adjacent to the Himalayas, east central India and some parts of east and northeast India are likely to see normal to above normal rainfall during the August-September period.

However, peninsular India, western and central parts of the country are most likely to receive below normal rainfall. The El Niño conditions prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region are weak at present, however, the latest MMCFS and other climate models indicate that these conditions are likely to intensify further and continue upto early next year. El Niño refers to a natural climate phenomenon characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and is known to cause rainfall deficiency in India.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which is neutral at present, could turn positive during the remaining part of the monsoon season. A positive IOD can enable normal rains in India. The southwest monsoon brings about 70% of India’s annual rain.