The other spoilers: Just normal monsoon won't keep inflation in check

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

inflation is getting tougher. While concerns over the monsoon seem to dispel, food inflation might yet remain high. The RBI has recently said that the fight is far from over and monetary policy has to stay the course to align inflation with the target in this last leg of a strenuous journey. India's retail inflation rate is likely to breach the central bank's 6% tolerance ceiling again due to sticky pulses and cereal prices even as vegetable price pressures ease, pushing policymakers to raise inflation target in August meeting, Nomura has said in a report. Factors other than the monsoon have been increasingly shaping food inflation. A case in point is the 6%+ inflation print in three of the past four normal monsoon years, argues a Crisil report. Monsoon has been normal/above-normal at an all-India level over the past four years. Predictably, foodgrain production has risen in these years. Even then, food inflation, as measured by CPI, remained above 6% in three of these four years. The southwest monsoon started with a delay and stayed in deficit in June. However, it caught up well in July, and currently stands at normal (4% above long-period average, or LPA) as of August 1.

So, a normal monsoon is no guarantee that food inflation won't spike. Monsoon’s progress and distribution remain critical in the coming two months for food production and inflation. In addition, food inflation may be determined by the following swing factors this year, according to the Crisil report.1. Impact of El Niño: The World Meteorological Organization declared the onset of El Niño conditions in July. El Niño has usually led to deficient rainfall in India. Since 1991, there have been six occurrences, and rainfall was deficient