El Niño News

(Reuters) — Peru has landed a $300 million contingency loan with the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), according to a notice in the country's official gazette on Wednesday, as efforts continue to jumpstart the economy amid a technical recession.

By Nelson Bocanegra

Plentiful solar power drove wholesale electricity prices below zero a record 19 per cent of the time on the National Electricity Market in the September quarter, piling further economic pressure on ageing coal-fired power plants still needed to meet the bulk of demand.

The barbs in the analyst assessments didn’t miss insurance giant IAG.

Reserve Bank of India is likely to hold repo rates steady for a long period as easing of core inflation and high real interest rate provide comfort, but the frequent blow to food product prices though transient, may force monetary policy makers to be on alert, according to the minutes of the monetary policy committee (MPC) meeting. But he cautioned about uncertainties, especially from adverse weather events, the playout of El Nino conditions, uncertainties in global food and energy prices and volatility in global financial markets. «Monetary policy has to remain extra alert and ready to act, if the situation warrants.

Business Standard. India may shift sugar exports to the ‘prohibited’ category from ‘restricted’ for the entire 2023-24 (October-September) season, concerned about the impact of the weakest monsoon in five years on sugarcane crops in the major producing states of Maharashtra and Karnataka, two government officials said. Sugar mills can currently apply for an export quota under the restricted category, but moving to the prohibited category would mean a complete export ban.

By Alexandra Valencia

El Nino from March to May 2024, with a 1 in 3 chance of it being «historically strong» (Super El Nino). El Nino, characterized by warmer Pacific Ocean waters near South America, significantly influences global weather patterns, impacting food production, water resources, and overall well-being. The likelihood of a robust El Nino next year stands at 75%-80%, indicating that equatorial sea surface temperatures could be at least 1.5°C higher than average. There is also a 30% chance that temperatures may surpass 2°C, resembling the historically strong El Nino events of 1997-98 and 2015-16, which caused extreme temperatures, droughts, and floods worldwide. In North America, a strong El Nino typically correlates with drier and warmer conditions in northern regions, while the southern US experiences wetter weather and slightly below-average temperatures in winter. For India, El Nino is often linked to weakened Monsoon winds and dry weather, potentially resulting in reduced rainfall during the monsoon season.

NEW DELHI : India may sign a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with its key diplomatic partner Indonesia to sell up to 1 million tonnes (mt) of white rice annually, two government officials said. India’s 20 July ban on non-basmati white rice exports comes even as Indonesia plans to safeguard food security against disruptions caused by the El Nino weather pattern and difficulties with supplies from Vietnam, the current major supplier. Although Indonesia is self-sufficient in rice production, it procures rice through MoUs when there is uncertainty in meeting its domestic demand.

NEW DELHI : India may shift sugar exports to the ‘prohibited’ category from ‘restricted’ for the entire 2023-24 (October-September) season, concerned about the impact of the weakest monsoon in five years on sugarcane crops in the major producing states of Maharashtra and Karnataka, two government officials said. Sugar mills can currently apply for an export quota under the restricted category, but moving to the prohibited category would mean a complete export ban. “Sugar output is expected to fall to 30 million tonnes (mt) in the 2023-24 sugar season against domestic consumption of 27.5-28 mt due to El Nino compromising monsoon rain in August," one of the officials said.

India's retail inflation eases to 5.02% in September, comes within RBI's tolerance mark after two months Most experts expected retail inflation to be in the range of 5.3 per cent to 5.5 per cent as they pointed out a significant decline in select food items. The recent drop in inflation to a three-month low is a significant positive development on the macroeconomic front. Notably, the September CPI inflation rate at 5.02 per cent is below the upper threshold of the RBI's acceptable range of 2 to 6 per cent.

Federal and Victorian energy ministers have declared confidence in the Australian Energy Market Operator to keep the lights on this summer as it commissions companies to provide an extra 118 megawatts in South Australia and 120 megawatts in Victoria to boost supply before the return of an El Nino weather system.

A summer of blackouts has emerged as a real risk of Australia’s creaking power system, increasing the likelihood of extra government intervention in a desperate bid to close the gap between the reality of the faltering energy transition and the ambition of 2030 climate targets.

₹26 billion, exceeding the pre-covid levels. During Q1 FY2024, the spirits industry reported a 13% year-on-year increase in revenues despite being the lean season for the segment, while the beer industry, despite being the peak season, witnessed a marginal decline of 1%, due to the unseasonal rainfall," the ratings firm said in its note.

The NSE Nifty 50 index ended 0.55% or 108 points to 19,653, and the S&P BSE Sensex closed 0.55% or 364 points at 65,995. The RBI's rate-setting committee kept the key lending rate steady at 6.50%. The central bank also maintained its policy stance of «withdrawal of accommodation» to bring inflation within its target band. Meanwhile, the RBI governor retained the inflation projection at 5.4% for fiscal 2024 but cautioned that the inflation trajectory will be shaped by global food and energy prices, as well as El Nino conditions. From Sensex stocks, Bajaj Finserv and Bajaj Finance were the top gainers, rising 5.6% and 3.8%, respectively.

Click here! The weather department in its latest bulletin on 5 October stated that that "conditions are becoming favourable for further withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from remaining parts of Jammu-Kashmir-Ladakh-Gilgit-Baltistan-Muzaffarabad, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, West Uttar Pradesh, West Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat state; some parts of East Uttar Pradesh, East Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra during next 2 days. It also added that above normal rainfall activity is likely over extreme south Peninsular India; below normal over Northeast and Eastcentral India and normal rainfall activity over rest parts of the country during 12-18 October.

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee unanimously decided to keep the repo rate- key lending rate- unchanged at 6.5 per cent for the fourth time in a row. The rate-setting panel also left the policy stance unchanged with focus on withdrawal of accommodation. The central bank now sees inflation for Q2, Q3 and Q4 at 6.4%, 5.6% and 5.2%, respectively.

By Charlotte Van Campenhout

(Exciting news! Mint is now on WhatsApp Channel. Subscribe today by clicking the link and stay updated with the latest financial insights! Click here!) The monsoon was uneven, with June rains 9% below average because of the delay in the arrival of rains, but July rains rebounded to 13% above average. Also read: Monsoon season ends with 'below-average' rains, IMD blames El Nino for deficit August was the driest on record with a 36% deficit.

heat wave that raised the risk of bushfires and led authorities to issue fire bans for large swathes of New South Wales state. The nation's weather forecaster said temperatures would be up to 12 degrees Celsius (53.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above average in some areas, with Sydney, the capital of Australia's most populous state New South Wales, set to hit 36 C (96.8 F). At Sydney's Kingsford Smith Airport, the temperature was 34.6 C (94.3 F) at 2pm (0300 GMT), more than 11 degrees above the October mean maximum temperature, according to forecaster data. Australia faces a high-risk bushfire season following the onset of an El Nino weather event, recently announced, which is typically associated with extreme events such as wildfires, cyclones and droughts. State Emergency Services Minister Jihad Dib announced the start of an official bushfire danger period, with the «scorching» heat lifting the risk for the week ahead. «Not only is it hot, it's dry and it's windy and those conditions combined are the perfect storm,» Dib said. Fire authorities on Sunday issued nine total fire bans for parts of the state to reduce the chance of bushfires. Australia's last two fire seasons have been quiet compared with the catastrophic 2019-2020 «Black Summer» of bushfires that destroyed an area the size of Turkey and killed 33 people. In Sydney, local resident Sandy Chapman said she was worried about the mix of extreme heat and wind. «It doesn't take long to start a fire and have it burning and it's very scary,» Chapman said. Sydneysider Katie Kell hoped there would be no repeat of bushfires on the same scale as 2019-20. «I don't know, with how hot it's been since the start of spring, I'm not too confident,» Kell said.

India received 'normal' rainfall during the four-month-long monsoon season despite El Nino conditions, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Saturday. The country received 820 mm of rainfall against the long-period average (LPA) of 868.6 mm, or 94.4% of LPA, the agency said in its final summer rainfall season briefing. Economists said while kharif sowing has been more than last year, the lesser acreage for pulses and oilseeds because of deficient August rain could cause inflationary pressure. The country as a whole recorded 5.7% less rainfall compared to normal, said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of Meteorology, IMD on Saturday. «The effect of El Nino was countered by other factors, and so it could not affect rainfall too much,» he added. The IMD had forecast 96% rainfall with a model error of plus or minus 4% at the start of the monsoon season. Higher rainfall in September made up some of the high deficit in August with 73% of sub-divisional areas recording normal rainfall and 18% recording deficient rainfall. Economists said the record-high deficit in August will dent agriculture. «Rains in September may not be adequate to offset the dry spell in August.