El Niño News

₹200/cylinder cut in LPG prices will likely reflect in the September CPI print, and may shave off 20-25 bps from the headline rate." Still, the CPI reading for Q2 is likely to be above the RBI’s projection, which has already been revised higher by a meaningful 100 bps by the central bank in the August monetary policy meeting. Thus, an upward revision in the RBI’s Q2 projections is on the cards. As such, the central bank has pencilled in a significant easing in price pressures in H2FY24.

Insurance customers want more frequent and clearer outlines about how their damage claims are progressing and timelines for conducting repairs, the industry’s association has admitted.

soya bean, sugarcane, moong and urad to overcome the damage caused by scanty rains in August, experts said, warning of poor yield, price increases, and food inflation. «Inadequate rainfall for more than a month now is adding to uncertainty for crop yields,» said Rahul Bajoria, managing director and head of EM Asia (ex-China) economics of Barclays.

raw sugar during the upcoming crushing season to help mills in states where adverse weather conditions are expected to hit sugarcane production. «India could import a certain quantity of raw sugar to supplement cane crushing in the areas where climatic impact is likely to reduce crushable sugarcane,» said industry body National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories (NFCSF) said in a press release on Thursday. There are concerns about production of sugarcane in Maharashtra and Karnataka, which is likely to affect availability of sugar for consumption and for ethanol production for blending with petrol in these states, it said. India had last imported raw sugar in 2017, after which the country has been an exporter. In 2021-22, India was the second largest exporter of raw sugar in the world. Sugarcane crushing for the 2023-24 (October-September) season will begin next month. NFCSF pointed out that crushing capacity has increased in Maharashtra, Karnataka and Gujarat in recent years and a likely shortage of sugarcane will prevent sugar factories from operating at full capacity, impacting their economies of scale. «Raw sugar, if used along with sugarcane for crushing, will not only enable mills to attain economies of scale of operation, but will help increase net sugar production,» it said. At the same time, the industry body has brushed aside as «rumours» talks of a likely shortage of sugar production in 2023-24, saying most cane-growing states have received good rains. «The situation is contrary,» it said.

While the price of vegetarian thali declined 0.6% sequentially to Rs 33.8 in August from Rs 34 in the previous month, non-vegetarian thali prices were down 30 paise to Rs 67.3. “Of the 24% rise in the vegetarian thali cost, 21% can be attributed solely to the price of tomato, which rose 176% on-year to Rs 102/kg in the month vs Rs 37/kg a year ago,” the rating agency stated in its report released on Thursday. The thali prices indicate that there would be little respite from inflation in August. Experts indicate that inflation will stay above the 7% mark for the second consecutive month.

Weather remains a pivotal factor influencing the price dynamics of various agricultural commodities across the globe. This holds true for three major food commodities: cocoa, sugar, and rice, all of which have witnessed a substantial uptick in prices in recent weeks.

El Nino intensified, and forecasts for lower rainfall in September are further threatening to disrupt supplies. While wheat output forecasts are being revised lower due to dry weather in Australia, the world's second largest exporter, record-low monsoon rains are expected to reduce the volume of crops, including rice, in India, the world's biggest shipper of the grain, meteorologists and analysts said. Insufficient rains in Southeast Asia, meanwhile, could dent supplies of palm oil, the world's most widely used vegetable oil, while extreme weather in top corn and soybean importer China is putting food output at risk. «We are in full-blown El Nino weather in several parts of the world and it is going to intensify towards the end of the year,» said Chris Hyde, a meteorologist at U.S.-based Maxar, which provides climate data analytics. «The weather pattern in Asia will correlate with dry El Nino conditions.» El Nino is a warming of Pacific waters which typically results in drier conditions over Asia and excessive rains in parts of North and South America. LACK OF RAINS IN INDIA, AUSTRALIA India's monsoon rains, crucial for summer crops such as rice, sugarcane, soybeans and corn, are poised to be the weakest in eight years. «The impact of El Nino is much greater than we had anticipated,» said a senior India Meteorological Department official. «This month is going to end with a deficit of over 30%, marking it as the driest August on record.

El Nino in oil-producing countries is felt, they said. FMCG companies are, however, worried about rice production in the country as many eastern states that produce non-basmati rice have not received good rains which may harm the standing paddy crop in the fields. "Monsoon is critical for the soya bean and groundnut crop.

Andrew Holland, CEO, Avendus Capital Public Markets Alternate Strategies LLP, says “HDFC Bank is cheaper, or is at a similar level to where it was three years ago, for a reason. And that is because the market is still waiting to see how the merger pans out. That will continue to be a wait and watch approach by the market before it gives a thumbs up to the merger. And of course, I have just been looking at some data which is showing credit growth is starting to slow.” Are you also digging out within the PSU pack because that clearly seems to be the flavour of late? No, it is the whole. Let us take the banking sector, it has been a laggard now for some time. So, it is not surprising that you get some kind of a relief rally or rally in the index. But it is not compelling. It does not give me the confidence to say that we are not going to drift down over the next few weeks. There are a lot of events ahead of us. There are a lot of messy global factors which are still playing out, whether it is China, Japan, and the Fed, with their policy coming this month. So, yes I expect a lot more volatility.

rice market. The world’s top shipper has placed restrictions on all of its exports, panicking governments from Asia to West Africa. Other big growers have tried to reassure consumers that rice supply is ample, but it’s done little to calm the market. Rice prices in Asia jumped back near the highest level in almost 15 years on Wednesday after India slapped more curbs on parboiled and basmati over the previous weekend.

Lower rain caused by the onslaught of El Nino and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will likely have an impact on the sowing of rabi crops and the arrival of kharif crops, Anuj Gupta, Head Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities tells ETMarkets. The production hit could be between 5% and 10% with an adverse bearing on Rabi crops like wheat, pulses, rice, RMSeed and onion, he adds. Edited excerpts:What impact do you see on agri produce with August turning out to be acutely rain deficit and warmest month?Lower rain caused by the onslaught of El Nino and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will likely have an impact on the sowing of Rabi crops and the arrival of Kharif crops. As for the concerns on the production side, 5% to 10% of the crop may be impacted due to this. This will have a direct bearing on farm incomes, inflation and the overall Indian economy. If the rain deficit continues, we will likely see further declines in production on agri commodities.Give us a sense of commodities that are likely to be impacted most and what will be the scale of impact?We noticed a rain deficit in August and this will likely have an adverse bearing on Rabi crops like wheat, pulses and RMSeed. It may also have an impact on the arrival of kharif crops like rice, guar, cotton, and pulses as well.

India’s growth forecast to 6.7% in 2023 from 5.5% projected earlier, as the Indian economy recorded 7.8% growth in the April-June quarter. “Strong services expansion and capital expenditures propelled India’s 7.8% real GDP growth in the second quarter from a year ago,” Moody’s said in its report. However, the rating and research agency lowered the 2024 forecast down to 6.1% from the 6.5% projected earlier. “Since the second quarter outperformance creates a high base in 2023, we have lowered our 2024 growth forecast from 6.5% to 6.1%. Given the robust underlying economic momentum, we also recognize further upside risk to India’s economic growth performance,” it said. On the inflation front, the rating agency expects inflation to average 5.7% in 2023, a tad below the Reserve Bank of India’s upper target band of 6%. In July, inflation at 7.4%, crossed the Reserve Bank of India’s upper target band for the first time.

India’s economy has clocked up impressive growth of 7.8% in the first quarter of the current financial year, mainly due to good performance by the agricultural and financial sectors

ALSO READ: Weather update: IMD predicts heavy rains in THESE states from 2 September. Check forecast here Mohapatra claimed that even if the rainfall in September was to remain on the higher side, the June-September seasonal rainfall average is expected to be below normal for the season.

Nestle India Chairman & Managing Director Suresh Narayanan said on Thursday. Going by publicly available information, now it is reasonably clear that with a 30 per cent deficit in the monsoon, Kharif crops might get impacted, even if the sowing is good, said Narayanan in a media roundtable here. With this El Nino impact not fully played out, we still have to watch for the spectre of food inflation, he said. «There will be pressure in terms of food inflation.

Victoria and South Australia face an increased risk of rolling blackouts this summer, the electricity grid operator has warned, as the return of an El Niño weather pattern brings a hot, dry summer with lower wind output.

El Nino will turn moderate in September and remain strong till December this year. A couple of days ago, Reuters reported India is poised for its lowest monsoon rains in eight years. "India is poised for its lowest monsoon rains in eight years, with the El Niño weather pattern seen crimping September precipitation after an August that is on track to be the driest in more than a century," Reuters quoted two weather department officials saying so.

Florida's Gulf Coast due on Wednesday signaled activity in the Atlantic's hurricane alley might not be as quiet this year as meteorologists had once predicted. Scientists initially forecast in May that the U.S. would see a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season, but raised that forecast in mid-August, projecting a more dangerous storm season.

storm Hilary slammed into it from the south. Unprecedented amounts of rain pelted downtown Los Angeles and flooded the state’s arid valleys. Without missing a beat, forecasts then shifted from drenching to baking, as a heat dome fastened itself over much of the southern United States all the way up to the Great Lakes.

NEW DELHI : Electricity usage that began rising in July touched record levels of demand in August as rains waned, driving stocks of power companies to new highs. As demand surged, power shortage also shot up. According to data from the Grid Controller of India, the country saw a record peak shortage of 9.11 gigawatts (GW)—or over 4% of the peak demand—on 21 August, when peak demand was 226GW.

driest August since 1901 which, senior meteorologists say, is a clear result of intensifying El Nino conditions. Also, the monsoon this year may end up being the driest since 2015, which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent, they said. With a 32 per cent precipitation deficit in August so far and the prediction of only subdued rainfall activity over a large part of the country in the next three days, India is on track to record the driest August since 1901, an India Meteorological Department (IMD) official said, requesting anonymity. August receives 254.9 mm of rainfall, accounting for around 30 per cent of the precipitation during the monsoon season. India recorded a rainfall deficit of 25 per cent in August 2005, 24.6 per cent in 1965; 24.4 per cent in 1920; 24.1 per cent in 2009 and 24 per cent deficit in 1913, according to the IMD data. IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said the primary reason for below-normal rainfall in August was El Nino — the warming of waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America — besides the «unfavourable phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) which is known to reduce convection in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea». El Nino is generally associated with the weakening monsoon winds and dry weather in India. The MJO is a large-scale intraseasonal atmospheric disturbance originating in tropical Africa and travelling eastwards.