Commodity Talk | Rain deficit likely to impact wheat, rice, onion production: Anuj Gupta, HDFC Securities

economictimes.indiatimes.com:

Lower rain caused by the onslaught of El Nino and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will likely have an impact on the sowing of rabi crops and the arrival of kharif crops, Anuj Gupta, Head Commodity & Currency at HDFC Securities tells ETMarkets. The production hit could be between 5% and 10% with an adverse bearing on Rabi crops like wheat, pulses, rice, RMSeed and onion, he adds. Edited excerpts:

What impact do you see on agri produce with August turning out to be acutely rain deficit and warmest month?
Lower rain caused by the onslaught of El Nino and Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) will likely have an impact on the sowing of Rabi crops and the arrival of Kharif crops. As for the concerns on the production side, 5% to 10% of the crop may be impacted due to this. This will have a direct bearing on farm incomes, inflation and the overall Indian economy. If the rain deficit continues, we will likely see further declines in production on agri commodities.

Give us a sense of commodities that are likely to be impacted most and what will be the scale of impact?
We noticed a rain deficit in August and this will likely have an adverse bearing on Rabi crops like wheat, pulses and RMSeed. It may also have an impact on the arrival of kharif crops like rice, guar, cotton, and pulses as well.

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Are you seeing similar food inflation trends in August as we saw in July with CPI hitting above the 7% mark?
We are not seeing any major change in food inflation as we have ample supplies of wheat,