Blackout warnings sharpen as El Nino summer looms
Victoria and South Australia face an increased risk of rolling blackouts this summer, the electricity grid operator has warned, as the return of an El Niño weather pattern brings a hot, dry summer with lower wind output.
In a far bleaker assessment than six months ago, the operator warns the failure to replace ageing coal plants with clean power fast enough combined with potential shortages of coal and gas have significantly raised the risk of blackouts across the grid.
The report predicts the return of a long, hot, dry summer. Kate Geraghty
Against that backdrop, the expected shutdown of almost two-thirds of Australia’s coal power fleet by 2033 calls for “imminent and urgent” investment to keep the lights on through the transition, the Australian Energy Market Operator says in its annual 10-year outlook for power supply and demand.
It’s a further warning sign for federal and state governments about the challenges ahead of trying to move to alow-emissions economy and squeezing older fossil fuel plants out of the grid.
The outlook for NSW after the planned August 2025 closure date for the huge Eraring coal generator has gravely deteriorated since AEMO’s last update in February, piling further pressure on the state to strike a deal with owner Origin Energy to prolong its life.
“Delaying generator retirement has the potential to address medium-term risks if necessary,” AEMO says.
In stark contrast to the February report, the risk of shortages in both Victoria and South Australia will now exceed the strictest benchmark this coming summer, forced by higher expectations of periods of low wind coinciding with high demand, more frequent generator breakdowns, and a gas plant closure among other factors.
NSW surges above a more
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