10-Year Yields Hit Frothy Heights: Time to Boost Bond Allocations as Peak Nears?
The US 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise, pushing ever higher above CapitalSpectator.com’s “fair-value” estimate, which is based on averaging three models. The trend highlights the limitations of models, at least in the short, for estimating near-term changes in bond yields. But reviewing the recent divergence reminds us that the current spread, although extreme by the standards of recent years, isn’t unprecedented.
The 10-year yield in September rose above 4% (black line in chart below) for the first time since 2008, based on monthly data, which is used in our modeling. By contrast, the average fair-value estimate was essentially unchanged at 2.83% (red line), slightly higher than the previous month.
Reviewing the market yield less fair-value estimate emphasizes the extreme degree of divergence in recent history. The September 10-year rate was 1.56 percentage points above the average fair value, the highest spread since 1994.
Several explanations are popular, including the rise in the term premium:
“The compensation that investors require for bearing the risk that interest rates may change over the life of the bond,” per the New York Fed’s definition.
Some analysts advise that the surge in supply relative to demand for Treasuries is a related factor to the jump in yields (and the commensurate decline in bond prices).
The Economist reports:
“From January to September alone it raised a whopping $1.7 trillion (7.5% of GDP) from markets, up by almost 80% over the same period in 2022, in part because tax revenues have fallen. At the same time, the Fed has been shrinking its portfolio of long-dated Treasuries.”
Alternative theories range from rising doubts about America’s creditworthiness to fears that inflation will
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