Sensex closed at an all-time high on 26 September.
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Diminishing possibilities of further rate cuts by the US Fed and rally in both the USD index and US 10-year bond yields are driving foreign funds away from emerging markets, including India. FPIs have sold over Rs.1.98 lakh crore of net equities since October last year (up to 20 February), according to data compiled from the NSDL website. The impact of the intense volatility over the past few months can be gauged by the current stock prices and their respective 52-week lows. Of the 3,020 listed companies, 1,419 (47%) are currently trading within the 15% range to their 52-week low prices.
The short-term outlook remains bleak due to the disappointing performance of India Inc. in the December 2024 quarter. The Nifty 50 PAT grew by 5% year-on-year, marking the third consecutive quarter of single-digit growth since the pandemic, according to data compiled from a recent Motilal Oswal report. Experts believe that the markets will see stability from the April-June 2025 quarter onwards. A recent Emkay report expects markets to stabilise from the first quarter of 2025-26 as worries around Trump tariffs will recede and discretionary consumption will recover. The consumption recovery in 2025-26, aided by easier monetary policy and improvement in employment trends, will put an end to the earnings downgrade cycle. The report expects Nifty 50 EPS to grow at 12-13% for 2025-26.