A critical look at Trump’s economic plans

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The second presidency of Donald Trump is off to a wild start. Amid the freeing of violent criminals, attacks on DEI and affirmative action, and the violation of the Constitution, you might have lost sight of his economic policies.

But I’m an economist, so I’ll stick with those. Specifically, what are his prospects for getting what he wants on tariffs, income taxes and immigration? And if he succeeds, what are the likely effects on growth and inflation? The dangers are far less dramatic than in the noneconomic arena, but they are nonetheless real. Mr.

Trump has already come out swinging on tariffs. He will get his way because Congress decades ago ceded much of its constitutional authority over tariffs to the president under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977. A big mistake, I believe, but it’s the law.

All a president must do is declare a national economic emergency and he can raise tariffs as much as he wants. And hey, doesn’t economic growth near 3%, unemployment at 4% and inflation under 3% sound like an economic emergency to you? Or maybe he can create one by starting a trade war. So tariffs will soon be higher.

The hit to growth and boost to inflation will depend on how high and how fast the tariffs rise. For his income-tax cuts, Mr. Trump needs Congress.

But he will likely get most of what he wants—which is an extension of the provisions of the 2017 tax cut law that are scheduled to expire at the end of this year, and perhaps a few added bells and whistles. These provisions mostly apply to individuals, not corporations, and tax cutting is in the Republican DNA. Ronald Reagan did it, George W.

Bush did it, and Mr. Trump did it in his first term. Each of them,