A 'soft landing' or a recession? How each one might affect America's households and businesses

abcnews.go.com:

The solid hiring revealed in Friday’s jobs report for November, along with a raft of other recent economic data, is boosting hopes that the U.S. economy will achieve a “soft landing” next year rather than a widely feared recession

WASHINGTON — The solid hiring revealed in Friday's jobs report for November, along with a raft of other recent economic data, is boosting hopes that the U.S. economy will achieve a “soft landing” next year rather than a widely feared recession.

A so-called soft landing would occur if the economy slowed enough to bring inflation down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, without tumbling into a deep recession.

It's a tricky task. The Fed has sharply raised its key interest rate to try to moderate borrowing and spending and tame inflation. The risk is that the Fed would miscalculate and keep its benchmark rate — which affects many consumer and business loans — too high for too long and end up causing a recession.

In the past, the Fed's policymakers have often sought to engineer soft landings after a spurt of economic growth ignited inflation or threatened to do so. Most frequently, the Fed has failed.

What would a soft landing look like, compared with a potential recession?

In a soft landing, employers would likely keep hiring, even at a more moderate pace. Job growth could weaken as the Fed's high rates weigh on the economy. Many analysts envision growth weakening to about 1% next year from a pace of about 2.4% this year.

In some months, hiring could fall below the number that is needed just to keep up with population growth, which is about 100,000. The unemployment rate would likely rise from its current level of 3.7%, near a half-century low. The Fed expects the jobless rate to reach 4.1% by