America is losing the battle of the Red Sea
Iran launched perhaps the largest drone and missile strike in history against Israel, which was blunted by unprecedented cooperation from countries in the region and beyond.
Yet the biggest surprise is also the most ominous for global order. A radical, quasi-state actor most Americans had never heard of, the Houthis of Yemen, have mounted the gravest challenge to freedom of the seas in decades — and arguably beaten a weary superpower along the way.
The Houthis began their campaign against shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb, which connects the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, in late 2023. They are nominally attacking out of sympathy for the Palestinian people, but also to gain stature within the so-called Axis of Resistance, a group of Middle Eastern proxies cultivated by Iran.
In January, Washington responded with Operation Prosperity Guardian, which features defensive efforts (largely by US destroyers) to shield shipping from drones and missiles, and also airstrikes against Houthi attack capabilities within Yemen. The results have been middling at best.
The Houthis have cut Suez Canal traffic by more than half, starving Egypt of toll revenues. They have bankrupted the Israeli port of Eilat in the Gulf of Aqaba. Nearly a year on, the group appears less deterred than emboldened: It recently crippled an oil tanker, threatening a spill with catastrophic environmental consequences. A waterway that carried 10% to 15% of global trade has become a killing zone.
This saga combines dynamics old and new. The Bab el-Mandeb,
