Are convention viewing numbers a hint about who will win the election? Don't bet on it
The final results were in Friday: the Democratic national convention was more popular with television viewers than the Republicans'
NEW YORK — In a close election campaign with both sides looking for an edge, the party with more people watching their midsummer convention would seem to have an important sign of success.
Yet historically speaking, that measurement means next to nothing.
Eight times over the past 16 presidential election cycles dating back to 1960, the party with the most popular convention among television viewers won in November. Eight times they lost.
The Democrats will see what a summer advantage means this November. Vice President Kamala Harris' party averaged 22 million viewers for its convention this week, compared to the Republican average of 19.1 million in July, the Nielsen company said on Friday.
“It's one of those interesting things about covering politics is that you see these indicators about what really matters, and a lot of times it doesn't,” said veteran journalist Jeff Greenfield, who covered the Democrats this week for Politico.
This week's numbers mean the Democrats have been more popular with viewers in 13 of the past 17 presidential election year summers, Nielsen said. Although Democrats have won eight of the first 16 elections, their candidate recorded the most votes in 10 of them.
The last time a party lost despite having a more popular convention was in 2016, although it was close: Democrat Hillary Clinton's nominating session beat Donald Trump by less than a million viewers per average, Nielsen said. For all of his vaunted popularity as a television attraction, Trump fell short in the convention ratings three straight times.
A convention's last night, with the nominee's acceptance
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