BJP vs Congress in Rajasthan Election 2023: Why govt has been changing every 5 years; Will it swing this time too?

livemint.com:

Follow Assembly elections 2023 LIVE Updates here In an exclusive interview with NDTV, Pilot had said, “We (Congress) haven't won consecutive elections in Rajasthan for 30 years. Why? We need to introspect on this." This trend — of change in government in Rajasthan every five years — is seen as a factor in favour for the BJP. Many believe that the saffron party might come back to the power, keeping up with the trend.

Does the election trend give an edge to the BJP in this year's Rajasthan Election? But first, let's delve into why there has been this trend of flipping governments in the state: Political Strategist and Commentator Amitabh Tiwari told Live Mint that one of the major reasons causing the back-to-back change in Rajasthan government is anti-incumbency at local level. Anti-incumbency means that there's opposition to or disapproval of the current political officeholder. "Overall result is an aggregation of seat results.

Now, in Rajasthan, if you analyse elections between 2003 to 2018, out of 612 MLAs who have contested, only 38 per cent won. The BJP's strike rate is 50 per cent and the Congress's strike rate is 25 per cent. This is reflected in overall result.

There's high level of local anti-incumbency. MLAs do not perform," Tiwari said. One of main factors responsible for anti-incumbency is the lack of industries in Rajasthan, the poll analyst said.