BOJ will end negative interest rates in 2024, most economists say: Reuters poll
By Kantaro Komiya
TOKYO (Reuters) — The Bank of Japan will end its negative interest rate policy next year, the majority of economists said in a Reuters poll, as the market has begun to envisage the demise of its ultra-easy monetary settings.
Although none of the economists surveyed saw the chance of the BOJ rolling back its easy stance at this week's meeting, nearly 80% of them said the central bank will also abolish the 10-year yield control scheme by the end of 2024.
Governor Kazuo Ueda told a newspaper interview earlier this month the BOJ might get enough data by year-end to judge whether it could end negative rates, prompting traders to buy the yen to hedge against a possible earlier-than-expected rate hike.
Thirteen of 25 economists, or 52%, expected the BOJ to end its negative rate policy, which has set Japan's short-term deposit rate to minus 0.1% over the past seven years, some time in 2024, the Sept 8-19 poll found. That was up from 41% in an August poll.
Two economists forecast the rate lift-off to happen as early as in January-March, while eight voted for April-June, one for July-September, and two for October-December. The remaining 12 selected «2025 or later».
Japan remains an outlier in global monetary policymaking, with many central banks led by the U.S. Federal Reserve embarking on aggressive interest rate increases to combat red-hot inflation while the BOJ holds on to its easy policy settings. The Fed held rates steady on Wednesday but hardened its hawkish stance.
Chiyuki Takamatsu, chief economist at Fukoku Mutual Life Insurance, said the BOJ will end the negative interest rate at its March 18-19 meeting after it confirms the signs of sustainable wage growth from the national labour confederation
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