Dalal Street has been brimming with confidence that Nirmala Sitharaman will continue singing the good old capex song in the Union Budget once again today, there are fears that the dharma of coalition politics might have a bearing on government policies as well.
The tough ask for Sitharaman is to balance welfare spending without losing the grip over capex. The consensus view on Dalal Street is that strong economic momentum, robust GST collection, asset monetisation and record RBI dividend can help the government deliver on both.
But let us also look at the bear case scenario and not get drowned in fancy wishlists, many of which never come true.
Soaring share prices on Dalal Street that have taken Sensex, and Nifty to record highs and India’s market capitalization to over $5 trillion have made regulators like Sebi and RBI raise red flags.
Just last week, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das spoke about challenges to liquidity management as household savings are moving from banks to capital markets. Sebi chief Madhabi Puri Buch is worried about how household savings are not going into capital formation, but into speculative activity via the futures and options (F&O) route.
The Economic Survey, released just a day before the Budget, went on to