
Budget to maintain fiscal rectitude in the face of global storm
Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. The upcoming Union Budget for fiscal 2027 is being formulated against the backdrop of some positive surprises, despite a highly volatile and uncertain global environment. India’s growth-inflation mix has proved way more favourable than anticipated, as has global growth.
Overall, fiscal 2026 has been a year of resilience for India. The limberness has been underpinned by accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, robust corporate balance sheets and favourable developments such as above-normal monsoon and subdued crude oil prices. Trade has been cushioned by the front-loading of exports, exemptions for electronics and pharmaceuticals, and a high proportion of service exports, which are less exposed to tariffs.
Looking ahead, we expect real gross domestic product (GDP) growth to moderate (6.7% versus 7.4%) next fiscal, but the nominal one to accelerate (10.5% versus 8% in fiscal 2026) as inflation normalizes. That should support tax collections and corporate revenues. Trade-related uncertainty has been particularly high.
India faces among the highest tariffs levied by the US, absent a trade deal. Given the uncertain landscape, sagacity demands maintaining solid macroeconomic fundamentals and ample fiscal buffers to duke out potential exigencies. On its part, the central government has maintained fiscal rectitude over the past decade, barring the emergencies of the pandemic.
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