Bulls have defended Nifty's Fortress 24,600 successfully since July. Will it yield this time?

Nifty bounced from a low of 24,598.6 to close at 24,956.5 two days later. On 30 September 2025, it hit an intraday low of 24,587.7 before recovering to close at 24,611.10.

On 1 February 2026, the index touched 24,571.75 and later closed the month at 25,178.65. Monday marked another test.The repeated defence of that level has kept alive hopes of a short-term bounce, supported by what traders describe as heavy cash buying around 24,600.

But a decisive breach, particularly if the conflict widens and crude supply concerns intensify, could accelerate the downside, dragging the Nifty to 24,000, about 3.5% lower from Monday’s close, according to options data from the National Stock Exchange."There could be a near-term bounce from 24,600 once again , but honestly everything depends on news flows ," said Rohit Srivastava , founder of analytics firm IndiaCharts . "Surrounding Gulf states are being hit and there is a risk of tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz being attacked by Iran, raising the risk premium on crude as they take a longer route to Asian markets."Reflecting those concerns, the active oil futures contract on commodity bourse MCX rose 6.6% to ₹6,497 a barrel on Monday.Srivastava said that if the Nifty breaks 24,600 due to further supply issues in crude, it would plunge into a “free fall.” He explained that a trendline connecting all the lows since July would show a base at 24,600.Options positioning underscores the importance of the 24,600 level.Option sellers sold the 25,000 strike Nifty put expiring on 30 March at a volume weighted average price (VWAP) of ₹416.99 a share (65 shares make one contract) on Monday.