As Citigroup goes through the process of extracting 20,000 jobs, it's been given a steer by Boston Consulting Group (BCG), whom insiders say has spent the past six months or so examining slides and organization charts assembled by current employees and deciding who is superfluous.
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It's not clear whether BCG's work at Citi has informed BCG'slatest report on the state of the investment banking industry, but it would seem a missed opportunity if it hasn't. If you work in M&A, BCG has got some big opinions on which sector teams will be busiest in the coming years.
These opinions are expressed in the chart below.
If BCG is right, the two best teams for M&A between now and 2027 are healthcare and energy and power. The two worst teams are consumer and retail and real estate. And the two so-so teams are industrials and materials and financial institutions.
It's not clear when BCG started working with Citi, but it may be no coincidence that the bank set up «supergroups» covering healthcare and energy banking in 2021, shortly after Jane Fraser arrived as CEO. If you want to keep your job at Citi, these would seem the best teams to work for.
The good news is that BCG thinks that M&A activity will experience a dramatic revival in 2024, led by corporates, followed by sponsors. JPMorgan is predicting something similar. Deutsche Bank analystBenjamin Goy observed yesterday that the pipeline is up 33% year-on-year.
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