City-killer asteroid 2024 YR4's chances of hitting Earth increase; NASA releases likely impact zone list–Check if you are in danger?
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The asteroid, measuring between 130 and 300 feet wide, is comparable in size to the Statue of Liberty. Though not large enough to cause global devastation, scientists warn it could destroy a city if it strikes. With a velocity nearing 40,000 miles per hour, an impact could unleash energy equivalent to eight megatons of TNT—500 times more powerful than the Hiroshima bomb.
Scientists Monitor Changing Probabilities
NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) are closely tracking 2024 YR4’s trajectory. The ESA currently places the impact probability at 2.8%, slightly lower than NASA’s estimate.
“This is not a crisis at this point in time,” said Richard Moissl, head of ESA’s planetary defence office. “This is not the dinosaur killer. This is not the planet killer. This is at most dangerous for a city.”
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) first issued a warning memo on 29 January, after the probability of impact surpassed 1%. Since then, astronomers have been refining calculations as more data becomes available. Some experts believe further observations could reduce the risk to zero, as has happened with previous asteroids.
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