Dollar on shaky ground as Fed rate cut bets strengthen
By Brigid Riley
TOKYO (Reuters) — The dollar started the week on a shaky footing on Monday as markets took stock of cautious remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as they waited on a key employment report that could influence the outlook for U.S. interest rates.
Bitcoin grabbed the spotlight in the Asian morning, reaching the $40,000 level for the first time in over a year.
Powell said on Friday it was clear that U.S. monetary policy was slowing the economy as expected, with the benchmark overnight interest rate «well into restrictive territory.»
While Powell reiterated that the Fed is prepared to tighten policy further if deemed appropriate, traders were convinced the rate-hike cycle was over.
Markets were pricing in a 60% chance of a rate cut by the March meeting compared with 21% just over a week ago, according to the CME's FedWatch tool.
The U.S. dollar index, which tracks the currency against six major counterparts, was last hovering around Friday's close at 103.28.
U.S. data remains the «primary driver» of the G10 currencies, making non-farm payrolls the «most important risk event» this week, said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. The closely-watched November jobs report will be released on Friday.
«What we are seeing is the pricing out of U.S. economic exceptionalism, compounded by an unwinding of stretched long positioning in the U.S. dollar.»
That means dollar pairs could continue to get a boost depending on U.S. economic data, Rodda said.
Against the yen, the dollar was fetching $146.58 yen, after falling to 146.24 earlier in the session, its lowest since Sept. 11. The yen has recently pulled away from the near 33-year low of 151.92 per dollar touched in the middle of
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