Donald Trump’s adventurism is unsettling China

Subscribe to enjoy similar stories. Surveying his geopolitical scorecard at the end of last year, Xi Jinping had reasons to be cheerful. China’s leader had just stared down his American counterpart, Donald Trump, in a trade war.

A few weeks earlier, Mr Xi had presented a vision of an alternative world order when fellow autocrats from North Korea, Russia and elsewhere joined him at a lavish military parade in Beijing. Even in America’s own backyard, Mr Xi seemed to be frustrating American goals. He stalled Mr Trump’s efforts to force a Hong Kong-based company to sell two ports on the Panama Canal to an American-led consortium.

Today, the world looks more unsettling for Mr Xi. America’s capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela robbed China of its closest partner in South America and its biggest arms buyer in the region. It also affects about 4% of Chinese crude oil imports and may force China to write off some $10bn in loans.

Mr Trump’s threat to curb China’s presence in the Western hemisphere puts many other Chinese interests at risk, including ports, satellite stations, billions of dollars in trade (and a big spy base in Cuba). In Iran, meanwhile, unrest backed by American sanctions and military threats has shaken another autocracy. It supplied 12% of China’s oil imports last year and buttresses China’s heft in the Middle East.

Mr Xi probably hopes that Mr Trump’s adventurism will backfire, embroiling America in multiple crises that distract his attention from China. If America commandeers Greenland, China will relish the (probably terminal) damage that would do to NATO and American relations with Europe. But like America’s Western allies, China now understands that appeasing Mr Trump does not guarantee his moderation