EMs brace for challenges amid strong dollar and elevated US bond yields: Geoff Dennis
«For the first time Chair Powell kind of tipped his hat to that saying we just do not know what is going to go on. So, in this environment with not much in the way of rate cuts, I thought there will only be two actually in the new dot plot. I thought they would be a bit more hawkish. I am surprised the market was so surprised but there you go,» says Geoff Dennis, Independent Emerging Markets Commentator.
What should one be prepared for in the year 2025 because given the fact that you had the Federal Reserve go ahead and lowered their dot plot when you talk about the rate cuts come next year. You saw the markets spook. How should one read into all of these signs because yesterday when you saw the US GDP growth as well, they revised it upwards?
Geoff Dennis: It is a difficult environment for emerging markets let me start by saying that and it is summed up by the fact that the Fed is now assumed anyway in terms of the dot plot that the midpoint is two interest rate cuts.
So, what the Fed is doing here is they are accepting that the benefits if you like of sharply lower interest rates next year are basically not there anymore and they are therefore being more cautious. There are three things going on.
First of all, as you just mentioned the economy is reasonably strong, there does not seem to be a recession on the horizon. Secondly, inflation has seemingly bottomed out between 2.5% and 3% headline, 3% to 3.5% core and, of course, we have the enormous uncertainty of what will happen to tariffs and to the tax situation
