Energy & precious metals - weekly review and outlook
Investing.com — It’s here: The July oil bulls have been waiting for. The July the Saudi oil minister plans to make a difference with, via an additional million barrels per day in output cuts. The July where some of the most optimistic forecasters for crude think it could set highs of $90 or more for a barrel of Brent.
Kicking off the bullish messaging of the Saudis and other oil producers will be the July 5-6 seminar of oil industry CEOs with energy ministers from OPEC — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC and its allies, known as OPEC+, include Saudi Arabia and Russia. The 23-nation alliance pumps more than 40% of the world's oil supply.
Determined to control the narrative of this meeting, OPEC is again barring Bloomberg, Reuters and the Wall Street Journal from covering the event, similar to what it did at the last OPEC+ ministerial meeting in June.
“The focus will be on the OPEC seminar, which will likely contain an update on what the Saudis are thinking,” said Ed Moya, analyst at online trading platform OANDA. “Saudi Aramco will also set prices for August, which will let us know how bad the demand situation has become or if they are going to get closer to competing with Russian prices.”
The bull thesis for oil in the second half is held up by expectations that major producer Saudi Arabia will cut production meaningfully to bring Brent to above $80 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate to at least $75.
New York-traded WTI, ended the second quarter down almost 7% and the half-year 14% lower at $70.64 a barrel. London-traded Brent finished the quarter off by about 6% and the first-half almost 13% down at $74.90.
The Saudis, who lead OPEC+, have announced three production cuts since October
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